CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.0867948537019499

will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600

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{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2672.932799749088}

Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 on Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET?

200

1641091928243

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 57.67679976384239, "YES": 42.32320023615761}

{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2673}

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True

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NO

public

1639779118231

SG

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{"NO": 14907.490984615304, "YES": 4595.866109467829}

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{"NO": 80.62257748298549, "YES": 59.160797830996174}

0

1641091928243

100

SG

1639779118231

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0

37

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0

0.25445556640624994

will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba-

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba

156

{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}

Will the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals?

0

1641105051918

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}

{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}

0

3.653759631593092

True

play

MKT

public

1639779668060

SG

BINARY

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{"NO": 221.04298224553523, "YES": 129.13558765886341}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}

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1641105051918

100

SG

1639779668060

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0.5

0.09846922663537425

will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths

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{"NO": 942.5619505426228, "YES": 39.9362627290667}

Will there be at least three deaths from a conflict between Russia and Ukraine before 2022?

129.00769822604798

1641091800037

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 81.33945031366292, "YES": 18.660549686337077}

{"NO": 942.5573133147456, "YES": 89.4503849113024}

0

4.656566499642667

True

play

NO

public

1639779863428

SG

Resolved YES if there is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET, according to reputable global news sources like Reuters, AP, etc. Jan 1, 8:46pm: Looks like it was only 1 death. https:...

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{"NO": 1121.406467958871, "YES": 370.6150423616083}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}

0

1641091800037

100

SG

1639779863428

0

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9397639921649044

will-100-people-have-signed-up-for

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{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 988.5097099731724}

Will 100 people have signed up for Mantic Markets by Feb 1, 2022?

510

1640880491968

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 33.33333333333333, "YES": 66.66666666666667}

{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 983}

0

4.65593042573639

True

play

YES

public

1639783228674

Manifold

Tags: #ManticMarkets Probably of interest to @AustinChen, @SG, and @JamesGrugett #2022 Dec 18, 3:37am: Also add a link to https://astralcodexten.substack.com/

BINARY

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{"NO": 294.48259710889533, "YES": 1163.163978808287}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

0

1640880491968

100

Manifold

1639783228674

0

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{"NO": 490.4371613502367, "YES": 3469.0188055854637}

0

will-mantic-markets-have-over-1m

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{"NO": 3585.1387071895388, "YES": 1198.7502639844383}

Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?

80

1672531200000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}

{"NO": 3665, "YES": 1130}

0

2.2104819028549345

True

play

NO

public

1639783730539

Manifold

Tags: #ManticMarkets Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 4489.463335767932, "YES": 1922.000078558749}

{"creatorFee": 21.1768420833198, "platformFee": 0.8125529072275822, "liquidityFee": 4.65375142372306}

{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}

0

1672607042544

581.617101612271

Manifold

1672121262965

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

108

1650313783640

0

1

96

[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429142}]

["manifold-investors"]

1672121262824

1659031290243

0.01

ManticMarkets

0.09333925972229659

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{"NO": 101.28154952977236, "YES": 653.5122762538691}

0

will-solana-have-a-higher-market-ca

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{"NO": 1265.2773611895934, "YES": 270.2317815024506}

Will Solana have a higher market cap than Ethereum before the end of 2022?

200

1672531200000

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}

{"NO": 1298, "YES": 270.00000000000006}

0

5.650626085665305

True

play

NO

public

1639792398312

James

This resolves to true if any time before 11:59pm Dec 31st 2022 Solana has a higher market cap than Ethereum according to https://coinmarketcap.com #Crypto #Solana #Ethereum

BINARY

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0

{"NO": 1637.1623139455587, "YES": 569.7129651017765}

{"creatorFee": 7.977758033509629, "platformFee": 0.13301101673093804, "liquidityFee": 0.7419702581485914}

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

0

1673396987552

120.74197025814858

JamesGrugett

1672415346578

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https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

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3

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[]

1672415346429

1661870899459

0.02

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5464852607709751

test-resolve

10

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

Test resolve

0

1639866019139

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

0

4.828237724912245

True

play

YES

public

1639865941016

James

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 155.24174696260025}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1639866019139

100

JamesGrugett

1639865941016

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

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0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9728069481742935

will-mantic-markets-have-5-paying-u

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{"NO": 284.0926931535215, "YES": 2751}

Will Mantic Markets have 5 paying users by Feb 01, 2022?

3.9999999999997726

1642282431704

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}

{"NO": 278.99999999999983, "YES": 2751}

0

4.630456541051196

True

play

YES

public

1639874031282

Austin

This refers to creators and users who have specifically chosen to pay money to Mantic. #ManticMarkets Jan 15, 4:29pm: Our first 5 paying users (excluding James): @LarsDoucet @DuncanMasters @LucaD'Agruma @AndyMartin @TristanKnight Thank you all so much!

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 533.4388485786787, "YES": 3190.5752904458095}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}

0

1642282431704

100

Austin

1639874031282

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

26

1715658365948

0

1642124693315

0.5

HvJgZ08pKfHgxHyI4OyG

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-na

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

Test n/a

0

1639874117701

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

CANCEL

public

1639874110071

James

Milli was here

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1639874117701

100

JamesGrugett

1651991822274

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

0

1715657892496

0

1651991818392

0.9075504278760665

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9075504278760665

will-the-mantic-markets-discord-be-

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{"NO": 27.278033789177513, "YES": 415}

Will the Mantic Markets Discord be a full community by Feb 01, 2022?

20

1642320869082

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}

{"NO": 24, "YES": 415}

0

4.690162966280456

True

play

YES

public

1639874691457

Austin

Some sufficient but not necessary measures of a community: - 100 people signed up - Averaging 4 posts a day - 5 meaningful conversations between non-admins #ManticMarkets Jan 16, 3:08am: We did it! Some notes: - I way overestimated the number of signups needed for "liveness". My last startup (One Word's) server had hu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 194.93046530883325, "YES": 610.7488384205552}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}

0

1642320869082

100

Austin

1639874691457

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

9

1715658738644

0

0.8521116780045351

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8521116780045351

will-3-or-more-prominent-creators-h

136

{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}

Will 3 or more prominent creators have created Mantic markets by Jan 16, 2022?

0

1642134342592

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}

{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}

0

4.753654235783955

True

play

YES

public

1639874991123

Austin

Possible examples of prominent: - 10k Twitter followers, or - Writing is their primary occupation, or - @AustinChen had read 3 or more of their articles #ManticMarkets

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 129.2130024417048, "YES": 310.16124838541646}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}

0

1642134342592

100

Austin

1639874991123

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

6

1715657764104

0

1641788238664

0.9916666666666667

8uRz34QZsgxKqE0frbIM

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9916666666666667

futureperfect2021-trump-will-uneven

1000

{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}

#FuturePerfect2021 Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20

0

1639972033254

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}

0

4.655925851497626

True

play

YES

public

1639902739928

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 To be clear, there is at this point no doubt about whether Trump will leave office on January 20, the official inauguration date for the new president, Joe Biden. Biden secured more electoral votes. Trump’s campaign m...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 1194.9895397031726}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1639972033254

100

Manifold

1639902739928

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715657656818

0

0.6999999999999998

533WxlfLZZH5TAviOX1H

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6999999999999998

futureperfect2021-biden-will-have-a

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

#FuturePerfect2021 Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year

0

1639972097558

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

YES

public

1639904963517

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 One of the more depressing political predictions I’ve seen floating around is that, should Republicans hold on to at least one of the two Georgia Senate seats, they will block Biden from assembling a Cabinet, and we’...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1639972097558

100

Manifold

1639904963517

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715656988355

0

0.39999999999999974

MahEAccGQhlN4gDqNG7a

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.39999999999999974

at-least-one-us-state-will-have-an-

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641095466977

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

YES

public

1639905206134

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it prett...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}

0

1641095466977

100

Manifold

1639905206134

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658023991

0

0.858906525573192

MunaJKuJ5SVjef3mrDv7

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.858906525573192

no-one-in-trumps-immediate-family-w

115

{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}

No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641095124453

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}

0

4.762228114049824

True

play

YES

public

1639905264244

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 Let me be very clear: I am not saying that Jared Kushner and Donald, Melania, Donald Jr., Ivanka, Eric, and the oft-forgot Tiffany Trump are innocent of any and all crimes. I’ve read a little bit on those folks and t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 291.93321153989996}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}

0

1641095124453

100

Manifold

1639905264244

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

1715658035423

0

0.9345252150446955

Q1SQ7gEQ7A5KNWMNUcgr

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9345252150446955

trump-approval-rating-by-years-end-

1725

{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}

Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641146441455

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}

0

4.640756373437741

True

play

YES

public

1639905760770

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The president’s approval ratings have been flat throughout his term; no matter what he does, about 55 to 60 percent of the country dislikes him and 40 to 45 percent of the country likes him. An economic boom didn’t c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 492.56979200921364, "YES": 1860.913754046651}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641146441455

100

Manifold

1639905760770

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

6

1715658131367

0

0.29136316337148804

sk77vMIfVWjeA1DiY5K7

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.29136316337148804

the-us-unemployment-rate-will-stay-

110

{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}

The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641095186929

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}

0

4.764428572192729

True

play

NO

public

1639906073195

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The Trump White House used to talk, back in the spring, about a “snapback” recovery: You lift social distancing restrictions, stuff goes back to normal, and the economy becomes what it was in January 2020, with unemp...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 260.95976701399775, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641095186929

100

Manifold

1639906073195

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

1715658790830

0

0.5056881909950328

rsa2p7xlmbbW8BKyDAte

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5056881909950328

us-poverty-will-be-higher-in-late-2

195

{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}

US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020 #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641095038274

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}

0

4.734166976544415

True

play

NO

public

1639906124587

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 I’ve written a lot about the rise in poverty this year since enhanced unemployment insurance (the $600 per week top-up included in the initial Covid-19 relief bill) expired at the end of July, and the projections tha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 277.7138815399763, "YES": 280.89143810376277}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1641095038274

100

Manifold

1639906124587

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

4

1715658775203

0

0.7916666666666665

YUtsXhGYlxykq9cWyjdD

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7916666666666665

the-median-home-price-in-the-bay-ar

40

{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}

The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641095347139

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}

0

4.804004003587409

True

play

NO

public

1639906158747

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 For years, people have been declaring that the Bay Area — my home — is doomed, even as its housing prices and job market continued to boom. But 2020 may have really changed things. Many companies have moved out of ex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 213.5415650406262}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641095347139

100

Manifold

1639906158747

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715658324560

0

0.8469387755102041

DoSnBlgGoc6wNEsaIc2i

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8469387755102041

100-million-americans-will-be-vacci

80

{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}

100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641094467195

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}

0

4.7791534511702505

True

play

YES

public

1639906190478

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has predicted that the vaccine will be widely available to Americans by April. Some back-of-the-envelope math tells me there’ll be...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 257.6819745345025}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641094467195

100

Manifold

1639906190478

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715657799374

0

0.29319398191641444

rXis568Ovm53jeg0pvww

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.29319398191641444

restaurant-reservations-and-consume

1042.8253688395303

{"NO": 671.17463116047, "YES": 439.9999999999999}

Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year #FuturePerfect2021

600

1641094448660

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 637.0000000000001, "YES": 439.9999999999999}

0

4.652712462652056

True

play

NO

public

1639906217326

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1096.9083935623198, "YES": 706.4765749672785}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641094448660

100

Manifold

1639906217326

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

10

1715658770756

0

0.3132787468850124

yljQbdaVZWEaH8hrElMw

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3132787468850124

a-deadly-new-zoonotic-outbreak-will

65

{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}

A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641146569947

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 94.98743710661996, "YES": 105.01256289338004}

{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}

0

4.787664358140534

True

play

NO

public

1639906647019

Manifold

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 I know, I know, everyone is going to hate me for saying this. And to be clear, I’m not saying we’ll see an outbreak that rises to the level of a pandemic like Covid-19, which reached into pretty much every corner of ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 219.60191255997748, "YES": 148.32396974191323}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 148.32396974191323}

0

1641146569947

100

Manifold

1639906647019

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

1715658958387

0

0.438957475994513

Nw3XZnNhUMQhG9nCu3yb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.438957475994513

the-us-will-enact-policies-to-hold-

70

{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}

The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open

0

1641094105799

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}

0

4.784730694915448

True

play

YES

public

1639906735075

Manifold

#FuturePerfect2021 In 2020, the Biden campaign referred to China’s repression of Uighur Muslims as “genocide.” In 2021, I have no doubt that Biden will repeatedly condemn the camps where more than 1 million of them have been held. I am also fairly confident that the US will pass at least one significant bill aimed at ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 202.23748416156687, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1641094105799

100

Manifold

1639906735075

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

1715658071751

0

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983088}]

["china"]

0.6000000000000003

QHDiHnJUgCL0OTiTgPUX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6000000000000003

the-hadi-government-and-houthi-rebe

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641093921588

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1639906820529

Manifold

This bet is motivated by a few developments that together make me think 2021 could be the year the devastating conflict in Yemen that has already killed more than 100,000 people comes to an end — or, at the very least, the year that a temporary ceasefire begins as peace talks get underway. My specific prediction is tha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

0

1641093921588

100

Manifold

1639906820529

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658138015

0

0.9

iMgS3nAkBc6xWhSlsYih

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9

ldp-continues-to-govern-japan-futur

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

LDP continues to govern Japan #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641093729827

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

YES

public

1639906869179

Manifold

I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense)...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}

0

1641093729827

100

Manifold

1639906869179

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658559336

0

0.6611570247933886

gnr3LwF4VZB05HiEKiML

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6611570247933886

cdu-continues-to-govern-germany-fut

20

{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}

CDU continues to govern Germany #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641093643475

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}

0

4.819494920240895

True

play

CANCEL

public

1639906892425

Manifold

I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense)...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 128.06248474865697, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1641093643475

100

Manifold

1639906892425

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715658530042

0

0.6999999999999998

5z2Sfu4s3k9PCDFspmKB

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6999999999999998

indias-economy-will-grow-in-quarter

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020 #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641093325668

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1639906917460

Manifold

One of the greatest tragedies of the Covid-19 crisis is that it forced low-income countries to choose between halting years and years of progress against poverty, and allowing a massive public health catastrophe to unfold. India opted for mandatory activity restrictions in certain areas perceived as at risk of Covid-19...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

0

1641093325668

100

Manifold

1639906917460

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715657232589

0

0.75

A9OlpSsTXKmqNzwzHmtC

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.75

at-least-three-new-basic-income-pil

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

At least three new basic income pilots will be launched #FuturePerfect2021

0

1641093236858

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

YES

public

1639906945476

Manifold

Covid-19 boosted public support for the idea of a basic income. As the pandemic unexpectedly wiped out millions of people’s finances through no fault of their own, advocates argued that citizens desperately need some sort of guaranteed payment to fall back on. Some governments and philanthropists listened. Spain starte...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

1641093236858

100

Manifold

1639906945476

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715657692810

0

0.5456981479097246

ooiNbYz6Adqcv7eUfLPa

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5456981479097246

an-ai-breakthrough-will-lead-to-a-g

342.951762253568

{"NO": 117.53360757983006, "YES": 159.51463016660193}

An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology

160

1641105648981

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}

{"NO": 140, "YES": 170}

0

4.714942594112902

True

play

MKT

public

1639911727422

Manifold

#FuturePerfect2021 In 2020, a couple of amazing AI breakthroughs rocked the biology world. First, researchers trained a neural network to predict which molecules (out of 107 million possibilities!) would have antibacterial properties, enabling them to identify brand new types of antibiotics. Then, DeepMind’s AlphaFold ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 320.7030803914318, "YES": 351.4852604879959}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

1641105648981

100

Manifold

1639911727422

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

3

1715658688875

0

0.9685324968140379

v9BWeFT1A408eWSgT415

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9685324968140379

global-carbon-emissions-will-increa

305

{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}

Global carbon emissions will increase

0

1641093169411

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}

{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}

0

4.709441087460418

True

play

YES

public

1639911755749

Manifold

#FuturePerfect2021 This is a perennial prediction, one of those that is mostly true every year. Global carbon emissions keep rising because the world economy is growing faster than it’s shifting to non-greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources. Last year, global carbon emissions fell, but that was caused by the near-total...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 89.58236433584459, "YES": 496.9909455915671}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}

0

1641093169411

100

Manifold

1639911755749

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

3

1715658844670

0

0.9266880048773053

a5aZJiubmrloG5IT50wR

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9266880048773053

average-world-temperatures-will-inc

205

{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}

Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020

2.842170943040401e-14

1641093142183

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}

0

4.731395359985805

True

play

YES

public

1639911786438

Manifold

#FuturePerfect2021 Average world temperatures have increased most years for the past several decades, though there’s a little bit of noise, so any given year isn’t a sure thing. This is a direct consequence of increased carbon emissions, but with some lag — I don’t expect last year’s small decrease in CO2 to produce a ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 109.65856099730654, "YES": 389.87177379235857}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1641093142183

100

Manifold

1639911786438

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

3

1715658355698

0

0.9124133585381222

fiJOEnlSrgC4XRfbxYr3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9124133585381222

plantbased-meat-market-share-will-i

145

{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}

Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent

2.842170943040401e-14

1641093048572

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}

0

4.750278660841244

True

play

YES

public

1639911816780

Manifold

#FuturePerfect2021 In the past few years, we’ve seen the takeoff of plant-based meat products — foods designed to have the taste and nutrient content of meat without the environmental, health, and animal welfare costs of factory farming. Plant-based meat is only a tiny fraction of overall animal meat sales, but it’s gr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 102.10288928331069, "YES": 329.5451410656816}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1641093048572

100

Manifold

1639911816780

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

3

1715658511120

0

[{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}]

["animal-consumption-trends"]

0.1903628792385485

X8SxNgjw7m8sSSL81rRn

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1903628792385485

will-austinchen-test-positive-for-c

5

{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}

Will @AustinChen test positive for Covid again before 2022?

0

1641384365780

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}

{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}

0

4.832896892548729

True

play

NO

public

1640018823652

Austin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 184.4586674569672, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

0

1641384365780

100

Austin

1640018823652

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

1

1715658286847

0

0.9407042248045538

Y9y4EzGooKs2wsmrh934

{"NO": 142.16442101180738, "YES": 118.70435787185785}

1

omicron-has-a-100-or-bigger-transmi

1150.739754989472

{"NO": 33, "YES": 381.4389221078994}

#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta

0

1672531200000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}

{"NO": 33, "YES": 385}

0

8.803950083046319

True

play

YES

public

1640032580361

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 It’s pretty hard to look at the UK data and draw any other conclusion. I hold out the possibility that this is an early-stage thing enough that it might not break 100% exactly, but this doesn’t seem like an interesting question anymore, since at most we are ‘ta...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 151.95064988344078, "YES": 595.3538351275795}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}

0

1672607346727

120

Manifold

1672607349836

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

17

1650314636693

0

1

18

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]

["medicine"]

1670079811077

1672607344234

0.95

0.3022959183673469

ESgg78HIKX8kmbjnR0Kr

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3022959183673469

omicron-is-importantly-more-virulen

80

{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}

#Omicron is importantly more virulent than Delta

0

1641105741255

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 170.08782529950642, "YES": 29.912174700493576}

{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}

0

4.7791534511702505

True

play

MKT

public

1640032598978

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 233.88031127053, "YES": 153.94804318340653}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 196.9771560359221, "YES": 34.64101615137755}

0

1641105741255

100

Manifold

1640032598978

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

4

1715657814249

0

0.7810118757787051

vuMGnysmTD8e4P0KrF7h

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7810118757787051

omicron-is-importantly-less-virulen

4839.685088457736

{"NO": 1314.2142941860834, "YES": 3110.100617356181}

#Omicron is importantly less virulent than Delta

500

1642025742487

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

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{"NO": 1360, "YES": 3272}

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play

YES

public

1640032621777

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 The data from Denmark and South Africa point in opposite directions here. Saying ‘oh well they cancel out’ is the coward’s way out for sure, but until I have more time to process that’s where I am at. I’ll probably update at some point soon off no new informati...

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{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

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Manifold

1640032621777

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1715658858230

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0.0969825211047191

cdc-labels-omicron-a-variant-of-hig

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{"NO": 13, "YES": 0}

CDC labels #Omicron a variant of high consequence before 2022

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1641095842871

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 147.97698539916914, "YES": 52.023014600830855}

{"NO": 13, "YES": 0}

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play

NO

public

1640032683078

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 I mean they should based on what I think it means, but whether or not they will doesn’t have much to do with that. Still waiting. Update Dec 20, 5:38pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8 This number hasn’t adjusted for the time that has pa...

BINARY

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{"NO": 188.67962264113208, "YES": 66.332495807108}

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Manifold

1640032683078

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We will be getting boosters modified for #Omicron within 6 months of our previous booster shot

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IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}

{"NO": 691, "YES": 235}

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play

NO

public

1640032716607

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 Fauci is outright saying we don’t need an updated booster ‘at this time.’ That definitely kills any super rapid response but in the later part of the window it still seems plausible. Update Dec 20, 5:39pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8 ...

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1663292512643

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0922017384766347

we-are-broadly-looking-at-a-future-

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{"NO": 864.3505751490084, "YES": 127}

We are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 115.35359952768478, "YES": 84.64640047231522}

{"NO": 867, "YES": 127}

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True

play

NO

public

1640032756261

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 The data in the UK and Ontario, and the data now coming in from various American cities, and the CDC nowcast, all point in the direction that this is happening fast. There’s no sign of a robust policy response anywhere, so maybe we really will let it burn, but ...

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{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}

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1647810917058

100

Manifold

1640032756261

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8198235089371633

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{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}

#Omicron will be >1% of all cases by the end of the year

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1641097193274

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 18.2650497368698, "YES": 181.7349502631302}

{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}

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4.818660066730059

True

play

YES

public

1640032799351

Manifold

#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 This already happened. It’s done.

BINARY

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{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}

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Manifold

1640032799351

0

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.07023319615912209

1-biden-approval-rating-as-per-538-

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{"NO": 475, "YES": 0}

1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%

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1641089672786

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 475, "YES": 0}

0

4.6865284317652485

True

play

NO

public

1640033825488

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

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1641089672786

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Manifold

1640033825488

0

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419320}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861359}]

["world-default", "us-politics"]

False

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.041322314049586785

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{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}

2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)

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1641092264521

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}

{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}

0

4.819494920240895

True

play

NO

public

1640033825883

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 215.40659228538016, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

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{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

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1641092264521

100

Manifold

1640033825883

0

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1

1715658369317

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419170}]

["world-default"]

0.19742461805834394

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.19742461805834394

3-yang-is-new-york-mayor

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{"NO": 479.9494336537758, "YES": 170}

3. Yang is New York mayor

200

1640880323142

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}

{"NO": 470, "YES": 170}

0

4.672706871205053

True

play

NO

public

1640033826200

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}

0

1640880323142

100

Manifold

1640033826200

0

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8

1715658832893

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422305}]

["world-default"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05000000000000002

4-newsom-recalled-as-ca-governor

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

4. Newsom recalled as CA governor

0

1640880539363

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1640033826454

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

0

1640880539363

100

Manifold

1640033826454

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658106183

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417047}]

["world-default"]

0.4408888888888889

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.4408888888888889

5-at-least-250-million-in-damage-fr

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{"NO": 75, "YES": 100}

5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year

0

1641104945093

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}

{"NO": 75, "YES": 100}

0

4.740126993650499

True

play

MKT

public

1640033826721

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World Jan 2, 12:17am: This one is not obvious how to resolve -- it probably depends on what protests count as BLM. I think the spirit of it is narrower than for just any protest on the left.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 280.40149785619906, "YES": 248.99799195977465}

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{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}

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1641104945093

100

Manifold

1640033826721

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

4

1715658020955

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416541}]

["world-default"]

0.20000000000000007

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.20000000000000007

6-significant-capital-gains-tax-hik

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)

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1641092251833

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1640033826987

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

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1641092251833

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Manifold

1640033826987

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658621810

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420532}]

["world-default"]

0.2589258233302554

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.2589258233302554

7-trump-is-allowed-back-on-twitter

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{"NO": 265, "YES": 105}

7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter

0

1641091732099

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}

{"NO": 265, "YES": 105}

0

4.699132952183791

True

play

NO

public

1640033827257

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 490.68829209590893, "YES": 290.0431002454635}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

0

1641091732099

100

Manifold

1640033827257

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

6

1715658282436

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418453}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181887166}]

["world-default", "donald-trump"]

False

0.44799999999999995

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.44799999999999995

8-tokyo-olympics-happen-on-schedule

50

{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}

8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule

0

1640880564685

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}

{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}

0

4.797109350291602

True

play

YES

public

1640033827499

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 185.7417562100671, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}

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1640880564685

100

Manifold

1640033827499

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715658073097

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416746}]

["world-default"]

0.20000000000000007

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.20000000000000007

9-major-flareup-significantly-worse

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war

0

1641092148353

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1640033827726

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}

0

1641092148353

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Manifold

1640033827726

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715657967101

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416328}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224303}]

["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

False

0.05000000000000002

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05000000000000002

10-major-flareup-significantly-wors

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict

0

1641092038988

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1640033827979

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World Biggest flare-up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis Looks like under 300 deaths, which wouldn't be significantly worse than anything in last 10 years.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

0

1641092038988

100

Manifold

1640033827979

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658861074

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422596}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670788014399}]

["world-default", "israel"]

0.0453514739229025

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0453514739229025

11-major-flareup-significantly-wors

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{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}

11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict

0

1641091709105

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}

{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}

0

4.828237724912245

True

play

NO

public

1640033828321

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 205.1828452868319, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}

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1641091709105

100

Manifold

1640033828321

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

1

1715657689844

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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414099}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983089}]

["world-default", "china"]

0.39999999999999974

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.39999999999999974

12-netanyahu-is-still-israeli-pm

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM

0

1640880349142

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

NO

public

1640033828593

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}

0

1640880349142

100

Manifold

1640033828593

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

1715658027393

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416611}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562244}]

["israeli-politics", "world-default"]

0.11019283746556473

kpB5LgfThfykDpGY0nIY

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.11019283746556473

13-prospera-has-at-least-1000-resid

130

{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}

13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents

0

1641092685935

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}

{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}

0

4.75600003485126

True

play

NO

public

1640033829095

Manifold

#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 311.2876483254676, "YES": 109.54451150103321}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}

0

1641092685935

100

Manifold

1640033829095

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

2

1715658602611

0

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420454}]

["world-default"]

0.9333333333333333

Um61u0dg0f3fG4bR0U9c

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9333333333333333

will-acx-grants-fund-mantic-markets

400

{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}

Will ACX Grants fund Mantic Markets?

0

1640334616437

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}

0

4.695099173273781

True

play

YES

public

1640133003771

Austin

This excludes ACX Grants+ or ACX Grants++ #ManticMarkets #ACX #ManifoldMarkets #Funding

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 579.6550698475776}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}

0

1640334616437

100

Austin

1640133003771

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

1

1715658228957

0

0.7470747152438756

1k9pPxBPRMPCx6lwDrkM

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7470747152438756

if-scott-alexander-creates-a-market

1417.3570084000535

{"NO": 217.27891633695435, "YES": 751.3640752629922}

If Scott Alexander creates a market, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?

0

1643748268081

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}

{"NO": 220, "YES": 738}

0

4.656997668241115

True

play

CANCEL

public

1640136073244

Austin

#JanRoadmap Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to NA as the criteria has not been met.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 587.7301669943424, "YES": 1010.0988528953369}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}

0

1643748268081

100

Austin

1640136073244

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

13

1715656898502

0

1641744663428

0.6000000000000003

DPQ4DmKPODAMtZBYTMps

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6000000000000003

if-manticmarkets-implements-a-centr

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

If #ManticMarkets implements a central limit order book, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?

0

1643748324194

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

CANCEL

public

1640136153835

Austin

#JanRoadmap Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to N/A As the condition has not been met

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

0

1643748324194

100

Austin

1640136153835

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

1715657785868

0

0.75

IbpiLh3QHucSkGLNLo3u

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.75

if-manticmarkets-implements-a-twitt

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

If #ManticMarkets implements a Twitter-like feed, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?

0

1641384307582

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

CANCEL

public

1640136207437

Austin

#JanRoadmap

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

1641384307582

100

Austin

1640136207437

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

1715657910061

0

0.1666666666666667

4Ue3FG9EfOmzZwu00Q5l

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1666666666666667

will-the-university-of-michigan-win

400

{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}

Will the University of Michigan win the College Football Championship in 2021/2022 season?

0

1641014838244

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}

{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}

0

4.695099173273781

True

play

NO

public

1640146781337

BCG

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 547.7225575051662, "YES": 244.94897427831785}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}

0

1641014838244

100

BruceGrugett

1640146781337

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

4

1715656972408

0

0.25521868100612816

uT1j2SWhZuiaA0myti9q

{"NO": 78.1718107547828, "YES": 321.41212705417826}

0

will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19

26461.774095893557

{"NO": 2673.5102506179705, "YES": 1831.0429332564868}

Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?

20

1663875999948

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}

{"NO": 2905, "YES": 1835}

0

1.3321510819711833

True

play

NO

public

1640203834520

Austin

Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/ Dates are inclusive. #ZviOnOmicron #Omicron

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 4049.726729543199, "YES": 2394.12118113881}

{"creatorFee": 21.611424615718686, "platformFee": 1.5025115315902107, "liquidityFee": 6.065704735395165}

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

0

1663875999948

106.06570473539514

Austin

1663876025590

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

52

1650314795313

0

1

52

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}, {"name": "Covid", "slug": "covid", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "iGfuM2jmlUwyQVMGyDbi", "createdTime": 1662506891682}]

["medicine", "covid"]

1663865816724

1663876023295

0.07693171722580107

0.6371882086167804

pLuBoYJE8Abupo9bpWzV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6371882086167804

will-austinchen-go-rock-climbing-to

10

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

Will @AustinChen go rock climbing tomorrow (2021-12-23) evening?

0

1640583469655

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

0

4.828237724912245

True

play

NO

public

1640233015906

Austin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 167.63054614240215}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}

0

1640583469655

100

Austin

1640233015906

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

1

1715658704802

0

0.7965882476050642

Ep8WgE0eriTjFkfSaXWe

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.7965882476050642

will-we-deploy-the-feature-to-sell-

31.057403257498045

{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 24.542596742501956}

Will we deploy the feature to sell your position before 2022?

20.000000000000007

1640642742357

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 69.37367983719986, "YES": 130.62632016280014}

{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 25.6}

0

4.812379921074141

True

play

YES

public

1640380482892

James

Mantic Markets moves quickly. Does it move this quickly?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 103.18914671611546, "YES": 204.20339019667367}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 93.80831519646861, "YES": 176.63521732655693}

0

1640642742357

100

JamesGrugett

1640380482892

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

1

1715657825613

0

0.5237301319098058

6G3L7V0GlN5spXOyuUjL

{"NO": 109.65790860703913, "YES": 91.70906870247069}

0.568009910921683

test

801.4257245377564

{"NO": 41.94475352929649, "YES": 19.999999999999886}

test

0

1656547200000

gFHPYoVtLOS2WLltl971yF35Fgf2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}

{"NO": 43, "YES": 20}

0

2.785684542343061

True

play

CANCEL

public

1640643213952

Pablo Abdelhay

test

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 184.43170525027384, "YES": 186.0107523773827}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}

0

1697234900413

103.6572544164287

PabloAbdelhay

1697239883158

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjxZMBrDlp81t7NGaw0wifr_eis3fc2zVnSmNtekcE=s96-c

12

1650313805342

0

1

14

[]

1656496076541

1697239879387

0.57

0.2461734693877551

8PUi4k6pedeDOSgZNxpo

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.2461734693877551

will-any-of-the-202122-college-foot

80

{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}

Will any of the 2021-22 College Footbal Playoff games be canceled due to Covid-19?

0

1641912696605

VglwDx84R4NShD6wGqfVt94AhCM2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 139.2335130598626, "YES": 60.76648694013741}

{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}

0

4.7791534511702505

True

play

NO

public

1640654451138

Isaac Grow

Will the orange bowl, cotton bowl, or the National Championship game be canceled due to Covid-19?

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 243.10491562286438, "YES": 138.92443989449805}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 183.30302779823361, "YES": 80}

0

1641912696605

100

IsaacGrow

1640654451138

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_MCoOkrp-cDeQe9hXBGIVA5sPiYM1xJPxYhvv=s96-c

3

1715657640068

0

0.15910258973773866

J5vxtwRSw6qJnhVhy5EU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.15910258973773866

will-scott-alexander-put-a-question

810.3694423620948

{"NO": 317.7562709941757, "YES": 89.87428664372948}

Will Scott Alexander put a question on Mantic Markets before February 1st 2022

40

1643748914790

kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 318, "YES": 81}

0

4.694134252476404

True

play

NO

public

1640663091864

Dan Sparkman

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 557.2000077877485, "YES": 242.3696472264722}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1643748914790

100

DanSparkman

1640663091864

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c

11

1715657927522

0

1642369762084

0.799120701907672

c95RFVoZ2NxCap3fFgZy

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.799120701907672

will-the-top-post-on-redditcomrallt

3946.591076820257

{"NO": 1093.408923179743, "YES": 2040}

Will the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top for January 1, 2022 be an image?

2000

1641082054886

ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 1500, "YES": 2040}

0

4.630008176731355

True

play

NO

public

1640663849081

Dwaxe

This market will resolve positively if the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top/ on the first archive captured on archive.today on or after 02 Jan 2022 00:00:00 UTC is an image file (e.g. jpeg or png). Dec 30, 3:07am: Animated images will resolve negatively (e.g. mp4 or gif) Jan 1, 4:04pm: Here it is: https://archive.ph/Mg...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1493.8575515666853, "YES": 2979.5301643044327}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1641082054886

100

Dwaxe

1640663849081

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c

9

1715658417478

0

0.10835609213979035

puvWOBELmtn3r5797ag4

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.10835609213979035

will-england-enter-lockdown-before-

921.0549905556235

{"NO": 660.9450094443764, "YES": 90}

Will England enter lockdown before 1 February 2022?

40

1643710680384

Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 676, "YES": 90}

0

4.666359790065699

True

play

NO

public

1640691626172

Ferruginous Duck

This market will resolve to ‘yes’ if by 11:59:59 GMT on 31/01/22 England has entered what I consider to be a nationwide ‘lockdown’: working from home required if possible, pubs and restaurants shut across (almost) the whole country, news stories asserting there’s a lockdown, etc.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 897.553618856011, "YES": 312.8897569432403}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1643710680384

100

FerruginousDuck

1640691626172

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-22faf69bd4b8

13

1715658722414

0

0.678791567841227

JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe

{"NO": 800.4323601850615, "YES": 1091.180607610161}

0.6078682761724682

will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr

7160.624932163984

{"NO": 518.7878759609526, "YES": 1004.6178456481409}

Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?

1028

1767225600000

uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

{"NO": 864, "YES": 940}

0

9.54640513274091

False

basic

public

1640703303623

Mosiah

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, o...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.006530822499724698, "month": -0.006530822499724698}

0

{"NO": 850.5805287532477, "YES": 1497.918943373591}

{"creatorFee": 8.171847286320437, "platformFee": 0.12073312812051641, "liquidityFee": 0.13196461848071217}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1000

Mosiah

1720121109954

0

https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617

57

1650313892879

1

31

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869295}]

["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

1720121106887

1689761183495

False

0.0233596948502121

S0pYkvY8VsVhSZraR9xa

{"NO": 985.0735190518246, "YES": 1600.934255316316}

0.014503827007968024

will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us

104723.032595619

{"NO": 18682.211359888686, "YES": 2709.70187065767}

Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

2

1737331200000

uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}

{"NO": 19207.98, "YES": 2707.02}

0.06503381583486567

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1640703608159

Mosiah

resolving Jan 20, 2025

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 20836.785864935344, "YES": 5659.500792020877}

{"creatorFee": 23.405613091819806, "platformFee": 1.7359243369396786, "liquidityFee": 4.05092080615632}

{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}

0

1000

Mosiah

1716683058147

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617

2

295

1650314594833

0

1

245

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}]

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.23159411188300635

1716683036369

1689743421234

0.09716026957737768

kwXI2svhJoKrLknayCnY

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0

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