Daily Papers

Following their success in natural language processing, transformers have recently shown much promise for computer vision. The self-attention operation underlying transformers yields global interactions between all tokens ,i.e. words or image patches, and enables flexible modelling of image data beyond the local interactions of convolutions. This flexibility, however, comes with a quadratic complexity in time and memory, hindering application to long sequences and high-resolution images. We propose a "transposed" version of self-attention that operates across feature channels rather than tokens, where the interactions are based on the cross-covariance matrix between keys and queries. The resulting cross-covariance attention (XCA) has linear complexity in the number of tokens, and allows efficient processing of high-resolution images. Our cross-covariance image transformer (XCiT) is built upon XCA. It combines the accuracy of conventional transformers with the scalability of convolutional architectures. We validate the effectiveness and generality of XCiT by reporting excellent results on multiple vision benchmarks, including image classification and self-supervised feature learning on ImageNet-1k, object detection and instance segmentation on COCO, and semantic segmentation on ADE20k.

Sexual dimorphism is a critical factor in many biological and medical research fields. In biomechanics and bioengineering, understanding sex differences is crucial for studying musculoskeletal conditions such as temporomandibular disorder (TMD). This paper focuses on the association between the craniofacial skeletal morphology and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) related masticatory muscle attachments to discern sex differences. Data were collected from 10 male and 11 female cadaver heads to investigate sex-specific relationships between the skull and muscles. We propose a conditional cross-covariance reduction (CCR) model, designed to examine the dynamic association between two sets of random variables conditioned on a third binary variable (e.g., sex), highlighting the most distinctive sex-related relationships between skull and muscle attachments in the human cadaver data. Under the CCR model, we employ a sparse singular value decomposition algorithm and introduce a sequential permutation for selecting sparsity (SPSS) method to select important variables and to determine the optimal number of selected variables.

Large language models (LLMs) have become a standard for multilingual evaluation, yet they exhibit a severe systematic translationese bias. In this paper, translationese bias is characterized as LLMs systematically favoring machine-translated text over human-authored references, particularly in low-resource languages. We attribute this bias to spurious correlations with (i) latent manifold alignment with English and (ii) cross-lingual predictability. To mitigate this bias, we propose DIBJudge, a robust fine-tuning framework that learns a minimally sufficient, judgment-critical representation via variational information compression, while explicitly isolating spurious factors into the dedicated bias branch. Furthermore, we incorporate a cross-covariance penalty that explicitly suppresses statistical dependence between robust and bias representations, thereby encouraging effective disentanglement. Extensive evaluations on multilingual reward modeling benchmarks and a dedicated translationese bias evaluation suite demonstrate that the proposed DIBJudge consistently outperforms strong baselines and substantially mitigates translationese bias.

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) on large-scale image-caption datasets learns representations that can achieve remarkable zero-shot generalization. However, such models require a massive amount of pre-training data. Improving the quality of the pre-training data has been shown to be much more effective in improving CLIP's performance than increasing its volume. Nevertheless, finding small subsets of training data that provably generalize the best has remained an open question. In this work, we propose the first theoretically rigorous data selection method for CLIP. We show that subsets that closely preserve the cross-covariance of the images and captions of the full data provably achieve a superior generalization performance. Our extensive experiments on ConceptualCaptions3M and ConceptualCaptions12M demonstrate that subsets found by \method\ achieve over 2.7x and 1.4x the accuracy of the next best baseline on ImageNet and its shifted versions. Moreover, we show that our subsets obtain 1.5x the average accuracy across 11 downstream datasets, of the next best baseline. The code is available at: https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/clipcov-data-efficient-clip.

Recently, efficient fine-tuning of large-scale pre-trained models has attracted increasing research interests, where linear probing (LP) as a fundamental module is involved in exploiting the final representations for task-dependent classification. However, most of the existing methods focus on how to effectively introduce a few of learnable parameters, and little work pays attention to the commonly used LP module. In this paper, we propose a novel Moment Probing (MP) method to further explore the potential of LP. Distinguished from LP which builds a linear classification head based on the mean of final features (e.g., word tokens for ViT) or classification tokens, our MP performs a linear classifier on feature distribution, which provides the stronger representation ability by exploiting richer statistical information inherent in features. Specifically, we represent feature distribution by its characteristic function, which is efficiently approximated by using first- and second-order moments of features. Furthermore, we propose a multi-head convolutional cross-covariance (MHC^3) to compute second-order moments in an efficient and effective manner. By considering that MP could affect feature learning, we introduce a partially shared module to learn two recalibrating parameters (PSRP) for backbones based on MP, namely MP_{+}. Extensive experiments on ten benchmarks using various models show that our MP significantly outperforms LP and is competitive with counterparts at less training cost, while our MP_{+} achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Prompt highlighting steers a large language model to prioritize user-specified text spans during generation. A key challenge of existing Key-editing approaches is extracting steering directions that capture the difference between relevant and irrelevant contexts, rather than shared structural patterns common to both. We propose PRISM-Δ (Projection-based Relevance-Informed Steering Method), which decomposes the difference between positive and negative cross-covariance matrices to maximize discriminative energy while eliminating shared directions. Each attention head receives a continuous softplus importance weight, letting weak-but-useful heads contribute at reduced strength. The framework extends naturally to Value representations, capturing content-channel signal that Key-only methods leave unused. Across four benchmarks and five models, our methods match or exceed the best existing method on 19 of 20 configurations, with relative gains up to +13.0%, while halving the fluency cost of steering. Our methods also scale to long-context retrieval, outperforming the best existing method by up to +5.1% relative gain. PRISM-Δ is compatible with FlashAttention and adds negligible memory overhead.

We present FusionCore, an open-source ROS 2 sensor fusion package that fuses IMU, wheel encoder odometry, GPS, and Visual SLAM pose into a single 100 Hz odometry stream using a 23-state Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). The 23rd state is an online estimate of the wheel encoder's systematic yaw rate bias, identified through GPS heading cross-covariance and subtracted during GPS blackouts to reduce heading drift in coast mode. FusionCore also estimates gyroscope and accelerometer biases as explicit filter states, handles GPS natively in ECEF without a separate coordinate projection node, applies per-sensor Mahalanobis chi-squared outlier gating calibrated to measurement degrees of freedom, and adapts sensor noise covariance automatically from the innovation sequence. VSLAM pose fusion enables GPS-denied operation with any visual odometry or SLAM system, including automatic recovery from map reinitialization. We evaluate against robot_localization on twelve full-length sequences (55-92 min each) from the NCLT public dataset. FusionCore achieves lower Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE) on ten of twelve sequences, with improvements ranging from 1.2x to 22.2x on winning sequences. The robot_localization UKF diverges numerically on all twelve sequences. FusionCore is available at https://github.com/manankharwar/fusioncore under the Apache 2.0 license.

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a general neural network training approach that uses a teacher model to guide the student model. Existing works mainly study KD from the network output side (e.g., trying to design a better KD loss function), while few have attempted to understand it from the input side. Especially, its interplay with data augmentation (DA) has not been well understood. In this paper, we ask: Why do some DA schemes (e.g., CutMix) inherently perform much better than others in KD? What makes a "good" DA in KD? Our investigation from a statistical perspective suggests that a good DA scheme should reduce the covariance of the teacher-student cross-entropy. A practical metric, the stddev of teacher's mean probability (T. stddev), is further presented and well justified empirically. Besides the theoretical understanding, we also introduce a new entropy-based data-mixing DA scheme, CutMixPick, to further enhance CutMix. Extensive empirical studies support our claims and demonstrate how we can harvest considerable performance gains simply by using a better DA scheme in knowledge distillation.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

While language models remain frozen at their training state, the world evolves continuously. Knowledge editing has emerged as a key alternative to full retraining, but its deployment is bottlenecked by the erosion of core capabilities: mathematical and programmatic reasoning collapse while encyclopedic recall remains intact. We trace this asymmetric degradation to a distributional mismatch. Covariance-based editors preserve only the subspaces spanned by their reference corpus, but fail to capture the operative distribution shaped by post-training such as SFT and DPO. Static external corpora, including Wikipedia and even the original pretraining mixture, cannot recover this shifted manifold. We propose Moir, which estimates the preservation covariance C directly from the model itself by sampling from its own decoding distribution. Seeding generation with a single random vocabulary token bypasses the instruction-following templates that otherwise dominate sampled outputs, exposing the broader subspaces the model has internalized. Moir requires no external data and serves as a drop-in component for any covariance-based editor, a practical advantage given that the pre- and post-training corpora of most modern LLMs are not publicly accessible. Across OLMo-2, Llama-3.1, and Qwen-3 (7-8B), under both MEMIT and AlphaEdit and in batch and sequential regimes, Moir consistently extends preservation in the most vulnerable domains, most strikingly on Qwen3-8B after 20,000 AlphaEdit batch edits, it retains 79.9% GSM8K accuracy compared to 10.9% with the Wikipedia baseline. These results suggest that aligning the preservation distribution with the model's operative distribution is a key factor in non-destructive editing, and that the model itself may be the most accessible source of that distribution for deployed systems.

Unsupervised domain adaptation for medical image segmentation remains a significant challenge due to substantial domain shifts across imaging modalities, such as CT and MRI. While recent vision-language representation learning methods have shown promise, their potential in UDA segmentation tasks remains underexplored. To address this gap, we propose TCSA-UDA, a Text-driven Cross-Semantic Alignment framework that leverages domain-invariant textual class descriptions to guide visual representation learning. Our approach introduces a vision-language covariance cosine loss to directly align image encoder features with inter-class textual semantic relations, encouraging semantically meaningful and modality-invariant feature representations. Additionally, we incorporate a prototype alignment module that aligns class-wise pixel-level feature distributions across domains using high-level semantic prototypes. This mitigates residual category-level discrepancies and enhances cross-modal consistency. Extensive experiments on challenging cross-modality cardiac, abdominal, and brain tumor segmentation benchmarks demonstrate that our TCSA-UDA framework significantly reduces domain shift and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art UDA methods, establishing a new paradigm for integrating language-driven semantics into domain-adaptive medical image analysis.

We study a persistent failure mode in multi-objective alignment for large language models (LLMs): training improves performance on only a subset of objectives while causing others to degrade. We formalize this phenomenon as cross-objective interference and conduct the first systematic study across classic scalarization algorithms, showing that interference is pervasive and exhibits strong model dependence. To explain this phenomenon, we derive a local covariance law showing that an objective improves at first order when its reward exhibits positive covariance with the scalarized score. We extend this analysis to clipped surrogate objectives used in modern alignment, demonstrating that the covariance law remains valid under mild conditions despite clipping. Building on this analysis, we propose Covariance Targeted Weight Adaptation (CTWA), a plug-and-play method that maintains positive covariance between objective rewards and the training signal to effectively mitigate cross-objective interference. Finally, we complement these local improvement conditions with a global convergence analysis under the Polyak--Łojasiewicz condition, establishing when non-convex scalarized optimization achieves global convergence and how cross-objective interference depends on specific model geometric properties.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) is a revolutionary approach for rendering scenes by sampling a single ray per pixel and it has demonstrated impressive capabilities in novel-view synthesis from static scene images. However, in practice, we usually need to recover NeRF from unconstrained image collections, which poses two challenges: 1) the images often have dynamic changes in appearance because of different capturing time and camera settings; 2) the images may contain transient objects such as humans and cars, leading to occlusion and ghosting artifacts. Conventional approaches seek to address these challenges by locally utilizing a single ray to synthesize a color of a pixel. In contrast, humans typically perceive appearance and objects by globally utilizing information across multiple pixels. To mimic the perception process of humans, in this paper, we propose Cross-Ray NeRF (CR-NeRF) that leverages interactive information across multiple rays to synthesize occlusion-free novel views with the same appearances as the images. Specifically, to model varying appearances, we first propose to represent multiple rays with a novel cross-ray feature and then recover the appearance by fusing global statistics, i.e., feature covariance of the rays and the image appearance. Moreover, to avoid occlusion introduced by transient objects, we propose a transient objects handler and introduce a grid sampling strategy for masking out the transient objects. We theoretically find that leveraging correlation across multiple rays promotes capturing more global information. Moreover, extensive experimental results on large real-world datasets verify the effectiveness of CR-NeRF.

Modern information systems often involve different types of items, e.g., a text query, an image, a video clip, or an audio segment. This motivates omni-modal embedding models that map heterogeneous modalities into a shared space for direct comparison. However, most recent omni-modal embeddings still rely heavily on implicit alignment inherited from pretrained vision-language model (VLM) backbones. In practice, this causes three common issues: (i) similarity logits have modality-dependent sharpness, so scores are not on a consistent scale; (ii) in-batch negatives become less effective over time because mixed-modality batches create an imbalanced hardness distribution; as a result, many negatives quickly become trivial and contribute little gradient; and (iii) embeddings across modalities show mismatched first- and second-order statistics, which makes rankings less stable. To tackle these problems, we propose e5-omni, a lightweight explicit alignment recipe that adapts off-the-shelf VLMs into robust omni-modal embedding models. e5-omni combines three simple components: (1) modality-aware temperature calibration to align similarity scales, (2) a controllable negative curriculum with debiasing to focus on confusing negatives while reducing the impact of false negatives, and (3) batch whitening with covariance regularization to better match cross-modal geometry in the shared embedding space. Experiments on MMEB-V2 and AudioCaps show consistent gains over strong bi-modal and omni-modal baselines, and the same recipe also transfers well to other VLM backbones. We release our model checkpoint at https://huggingface.co/Haon-Chen/e5-omni-7B.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

We propose CAST, a dual-stream architecture that utilizes channel-aware spatial transfer learning for isolated sign language recognition addressing the challenges of magnitude-only 60~GHz radar Range-Time Maps (RTM). The proposed framework combines three physics-aware architectures with pretrained vision backbones, which operate under radar-only constraints across clinical and alphabetical gestures. First, an explicit decibel-to-linear inversion is combined with a windowed fast Fourier transform that extracts Cadence Velocity Diagrams (CVD) while avoiding the harmonic artifacts that arise from the spectral analysis of log-compressed signals. Second, a cross-antenna spatial attention module applies attention to raw antenna channels before the convolution, preserving inter-receiver amplitude covariance. Third, an asymmetric cross-attention mechanism fuses representations from parallel ConvNeXt-Tiny (CVD) and EfficientNetV2-S (RTM) backbones. Extensive experiments reveal that the architecture achieves a Top-1 accuracy of 80.5% under 5-fold cross-validation, establishing a 3.3% improvement over the best single-model baseline (77.2%). The findings suggest that physics-aware signal representations form a promising direction for radar-only sign language recognition under constrained sensor modalities. The source code is available at: https://github.com/Shakhoyat/CAST-at-SignEval2026.

Linear attention significantly reduces the computational complexity of Transformers from quadratic to linear, yet it consistently lags behind softmax-based attention in performance. We identify the root cause of this degradation as the non-negativity constraint imposed on kernel feature maps: standard projections like ReLU act as "passive truncation" operators, indiscriminately discarding semantic information residing in the negative domain. We propose MirrorLA, a geometric framework that substitutes passive truncation with active reorientation. By leveraging learnable Householder reflections, MirrorLA rotates the feature geometry into the non-negative orthant to maximize information retention. Our approach restores representational density through a cohesive, multi-scale design: it first optimizes local discriminability via block-wise isometries, stabilizes long-context dynamics using variance-aware modulation to diversify activations, and finally, integrates dispersed subspaces via cross-head reflections to induce global covariance mixing. MirrorLA achieves state-of-the-art performance across standard benchmarks, demonstrating that strictly linear efficiency can be achieved without compromising representational fidelity.

VOLARE (VOLatility Archive for Realized Estimates - https://volare.unime.it) is an open research infrastructure providing standardized realized volatility and covariance measures constructed from ultra-high-frequency financial data. The platform processes tick-level observations across equities, exchange rates, and futures using an asset-specific pipeline that addresses heterogeneous trading calendars, microstructure noise, and timestamp precision. For equities, price series are cleaned using a documented outlier detection procedure and sampled at regular intervals. VOLARE delivers a comprehensive set of realized estimators, including realized variance, range-based measures, bipower variation, semivariances, realized quarticity, realized kernels, and multivariate covariance measures, ensuring methodological consistency and cross-asset comparability. In addition to bulk dataset download, the platform supports interactive visualization and real-time estimation of established volatility models such as HAR and MEM specifications.

This paper introduces RaCo, a lightweight neural network designed to learn robust and versatile keypoints suitable for a variety of 3D computer vision tasks. The model integrates three key components: the repeatable keypoint detector, a differentiable ranker to maximize matches with a limited number of keypoints, and a covariance estimator to quantify spatial uncertainty in metric scale. Trained on perspective image crops only, RaCo operates without the need for covisible image pairs. It achieves strong rotational robustness through extensive data augmentation, even without the use of computationally expensive equivariant network architectures. The method is evaluated on several challenging datasets, where it demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in keypoint repeatability and two-view matching, particularly under large in-plane rotations. Ultimately, RaCo provides an effective and simple strategy to independently estimate keypoint ranking and metric covariance without additional labels, detecting interpretable and repeatable interest points. The code is available at https://github.com/cvg/RaCo.

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

As robots are increasingly deployed in diverse application domains, generalizable cross-embodiment mobility policies are increasingly essential. While classical mobility stacks have proven effective on specific robot platforms, they pose significant challenges when scaling to new embodiments. Learning-based methods, such as imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL), offer alternative solutions but suffer from covariate shift, sparse sampling in large environments, and embodiment-specific constraints. This paper introduces COMPASS, a novel workflow for developing cross-embodiment mobility policies by integrating IL, residual RL, and policy distillation. We begin with IL on a mobile robot, leveraging easily accessible teacher policies to train a foundational model that combines a world model with a mobility policy. Building on this base, we employ residual RL to fine-tune embodiment-specific policies, exploiting pre-trained representations to improve sampling efficiency in handling various physical constraints and sensor modalities. Finally, policy distillation merges these embodiment-specialist policies into a single robust cross-embodiment policy. We empirically demonstrate that COMPASS scales effectively across diverse robot platforms while maintaining adaptability to various environment configurations, achieving a generalist policy with a success rate approximately 5X higher than the pre-trained IL policy. The resulting framework offers an efficient, scalable solution for cross-embodiment mobility, enabling robots with different designs to navigate safely and efficiently in complex scenarios.

Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series. However, existing TSFMs often incur high computational cost and provide limited support for diverse variable types, often failing to account for covariates that exogenously influence target variability. To address these challenges, we propose CITRAS-FM, a tiny 7M-parameter TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed zero-shot forecasting with real-time CPU inference. Built on a patch-based, decoder-only Transformer, CITRAS-FM introduces Shifted Attention into the cross-variate module to effectively exploit known covariates accessible throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, to enable covariate-aware pretraining despite the scarcity of covariate-rich corpora, we propose CovSynth, which synthesizes realistic covariates from decomposed components of target series. Experiments on fev-bench, spanning 100 tasks across various settings, demonstrate that CITRAS-FM achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy among sub-10M TSFMs while delivering sub-0.1-second CPU inference, offering a strong balance between forecasting accuracy and real-time deployability.

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at forecasting tasks and quantifying the associated uncertainty with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Exponential Smoothing Recurrent Neural Network (ES-RNN), a hybrid between a statistical forecasting model and a recurrent neural network variant. ES-RNN achieves a 9.4\% improvement in absolute error in the Makridakis-4 Forecasting Competition. This improvement and similar outperformance from other hybrid models have primarily been demonstrated only on univariate datasets. Difficulties with applying hybrid forecast methods to multivariate data include (i) the high computational cost involved in hyperparameter tuning for models that are not parsimonious, (ii) challenges associated with auto-correlation inherent in the data, as well as (iii) complex dependency (cross-correlation) between the covariates that may be hard to capture. This paper presents Multivariate Exponential Smoothing Long Short Term Memory (MES-LSTM), a generalized multivariate extension to ES-RNN, that overcomes these challenges. MES-LSTM utilizes a vectorized implementation. We test MES-LSTM on several aggregated coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity datasets and find our hybrid approach shows consistent, significant improvement over pure statistical and deep learning methods at forecast accuracy and prediction interval construction.