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Sarah Ferguson and Princess Diana on the balcony of Buckingham Palace in 1987.
Duchess of York Sarah Ferguson has written an essay addressing the downfalls of social media and the way women are “constantly pitted against” one another in the press — something she says she experienced as a member of the Royal Family.
In her open letter for Hello! magazine, 59-year-old Ferguson addressed the way she and the late Princess Diana were portrayed as “rivals” in the media, and how that affected her well-being. The essay is part of the magazine’s #HelloToKindness campaign, an effort by the publication to end online bullying.
“There is good evidence that this online culture is having a detrimental impact on people’s mental health, particularly vulnerable young people,” she wrote.
Ferguson’s comments may be interpreted as a response to the online abuse aimed at sisters-in-law Meghan Markle and Kate Middleton, and the media’s coverage of their alleged rivalry.
In January, British newspaper The Times published an editorial addressing the “vile abuse” the Duchess of Sussex and the Duchess of Cambridge receive and called for an end to the harassment.
Hello! royal correspondent Emily Nash told CNN at the time that the rise in abuse directed at the duchesses is tied to reports by British tabloids claiming Markle and Middleton are feuding.
In response to the widespread behaviour geared towards the royals, Hello! magazine launched its #HelloToKindness campaign.
READ MORE: Meghan Markle due date — When will the royal baby be born?
Ferguson’s recent essay isn’t the first time she addressed her relationship with Princess Diana publicly.
In 2007, Ferguson told Harper’s Bazaar that she “loved” Princess Diana “so much,” and that she really missed her. While she admitted to the publication that she hadn’t spoken to the Princess of Wales for a period of time before her death in 1997, she said the two were like siblings.
“Diana was one of the quickest wits I knew; nobody made me laugh like her. But because we were like siblings — actually, we were fourth cousins and our mothers, who went to school together, were also best friends — we rowed,” she said.
“And the saddest thing, at the end, we hadn’t spoken for a year, though I never knew the reason, except that once Diana got something in her head… I tried, wrote letters, thinking whatever happened didn’t matter, let’s sort it out.

industry_corpus2: Media & Journalism


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Harper in majority? Woe, Canada.
A week from today, we will once again deliver ourselves in the hands of Stephen Harper, the cold-eyed autocrat with the immovable hair and insatiable desire for power.
There is still a chance that just enough Canadians will rise from their La-Z-Boys, turn off the Stanley Cup playoffs, and cast their votes for enough non-Conservative candidates that a Harper majority might be avoided. If the public keeps Harper to a minority, chances are his career is finished. But barring something entirely unexpected — something like Harper briefly turning into Mr. Hyde before reverting to Mr. Jekyll — Harper seems likely to pull off that elusive majority.
I’m afraid after even five years of a Harper majority, Canada may be unrecognizable. After all, look what the guy has done with five years of minority.
Canada’s world reputation under Harper has sunk so low, we couldn’t even get a seat on the UN Security Council, which has never happened before. Harper has essentially given Quebec carte blanche to do as it pleases, leading to a de facto separate state within Canada. His environmental record is dismal. He has consolidated power into his office unlike anyone before. He silences critics and threatens the civil service if they speak to the media. Harper has adopted American-style politics and symbols, from the vicious attack ads against Michael Ignatieff to the little Canadian flag in his lapel to his backdrops for press conferences. He has treated parliament, and the media, with complete contempt. And all of that is while in minority.
What will he do with a majority? We might start to find out on Tuesday morning.

industry_corpus2: Politics & Administration


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New Year Resolutions, Make them Stick!
How are those New Year’s resolutions going? Haven’t you started yet? Have you already given up?
I’ve always liked to start new stages, it’s exciting! The process of creating new goals and establishing new intentions is very motivating. The problem comes when after a few weeks we realize that these intentions have gone into the background or we do not even remember what we promised. This usually happens when those goals are not real, when they are too extreme, not practical or sustainable.
Do not worry, you are not alone! I’d like to contribute and explain how to avoid this common mistake and how to create positive healthy changes that will last over time.
One of the best ways to start a new stage is enjoying throw a detox, it consists of 3-5 days in which you really become aware of your diet, observe your body and set your goals for the new phase. Think of it as a transition stage.
For example, why do I want to go to the gym? To be more agile and strong, to look better in the mirror … Think as your goal feel more attractive and athletic. It is much more motivating!
The first step is to understand how habits work! You have to start step by step and with real achievable things that you know will work. For example, I will not propose to get up at 5am to go running if I am one of those people who like to stay in bed until late.
You have to propose habits that are easy to follow and manageable for the busy life we all have.
It is not the same to say that “you want to lose weight” that “you want to lose 5 kg” or say that “you will do more exercise” or say that “you will go to the gym three times a week”.
Look for someone to serve you as an account, to whom you have to report back or who has the same purposes as you. It is much easier when you do it with another person or if you have to answer in front of someone. You will work much harder to avoid disappointment.
Do not let the word “eliminate” disturb you. If your goal is to eat healthier, we talk about substituting foods that are not beneficial to our body for other ingredients that really are. When you fill your plate with delicious and healthy food you will not have room for harmful options.
One of the best ways to start a new stage is enjoying a detox, it consists of 3-5 days in which you really become aware of your diet, observe your body and set your goals for the new phase.
Now is your turn. Get on the New Year train successfully! Achieve a new beginning and, finally, achieve sustainable changes for your health.

industry_corpus2: Health & Medicine


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Anyone can find a Forza Horizon to love. They come in all types of interests with adjustable skill levels required. They can be an excellent way to escape reality for a moment and forget your hectic life. The following paragraphs have some really good ideas regarding video FH3 Credits gaming, so pay attention!
When you are playing a Forza Horizon with shooting and you have to reload, protect yourself first. Many times people are killed off in a game because they're just standing there waiting for a gun to reload. You do not want this to be you! Find shield and security first, and then feel free to reload.
Stretch every fifteen minutes during Forza Horizon play. Your body will quickly become tight and uncomfortable from sitting in the same position for long periods of time. Exercise your muscles to prevent cramps and blood clots. It's very healthy, too.
Save your games in the appropriate slots. Try using an different one every so often. Sometimes, you get stuck right after a save point and have no other recourse than to back up in time. You can't do this if you only saved your game in one spot every time you save.
Parents must review the ESRB rating assigned to games at all times. A lot of games look like they are okay for kids, but they are not. Review the rating itself and the basis on which it was awarded.
You should enjoy gaming with your child. This can be a fantastic way to spend some quality family-time together. It can also provide you with a way to make conversation with your child as you can share a particular common interest with them. They will also benefit from having you close by to see and aid in the progression of their developmental skills.
Make use of parent control settings on Forza Horizon 3. Does the game have an online playing mode? If so, you may want to limit the access to the Internet that your children have. Check their friend requests and limit how long they play so they can stay safe.
Many games offer new items or content through either hard earned in-game points or real world money. Make sure you choose the right option! On one hand be sure that you are getting your moneys worth with your purchases. Purchased items are a quick way to get to levels that may take massive amounts of time otherwise.
Prior to allowing children to play Forza Horizon 3, check the ratings. Some games contain violence or other adult themes so they carry an adult rating. Violence can give your children the wrong values, which may show later in life. Children who are exposed to these games may experience behavioral changes and nightmares.
Make sure that you stay hydrated when playing Forza Horizon 3 for long periods of time. Forza Horizon 3 are great at helping people to escape from reality, but many people can become so engrossed in a Forza Horizon that they forget to even take time out for a drink. Drink as much water as you can during the game to stay properly hydrated.
The PlayStation 2 is no longer the cutting edge console choice, but as an inexpensive gaming unit, it still rocks. There is a remarkable difference in cost when purchasing these Cheap FH3 Credits games. Another advantage is the number of previously used games available, due to the fact that they have been around for a decade now.
There is so much involved with gaming that one article cannot cover everything. Hopefully, you have gained information to help you out with your gaming experience. Go home, kick up your feet, and play some Forza Horizon 3.

industry_corpus2: Gaming


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!! S U P E R - Appartments !!
- IMPORTANT NOTIVE - Form is only an Accommodation request. We will send you an offer by email after your selected choices in 2-3 days time. Of course, your data will not be permanently stored or shared with third parties.
A down-payment (advance) is required according to season and accommodation price.
You do not have to give credit cards-number per e-mail or phone.
The advance payment is per bank transfer.

industry_corpus2: Hospitality & Catering


text: Co-Federal League champion GlenOak earned the top seed at the Division I district draw meeting at Lake Middle School on Sunday. Undefeated New Philadelphia was the second seed. Co-Federal League champion McKinley was the third seed.

industry_corpus2: Sports


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Daytona Beach worker injury lawyer Allan Ziffra urges workers’ know your rights!
According to Wikipedia www.wikipedia.com, the United States Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) www.osha.gov is an agency of the United States Department of Labor www.dol.gov. Created by Congress under the Occupational Safety and Health Act, signed by President Richard M. Nixon, on December 29, 1970, with the mission to prevent work related injuries, illnesses, and deaths by issuing and enforcing rules (called standards) for workplace safety and health.
November 21, 2008, Daytona Beach, FL (JusticeNewsFlash.com)–Aggressive employee injury advocate in the Florida courts, Daytona Beach worker injury attorney, Allan Ziffra, reports 100,000 laborers are injured from falls on construction sites each year according to the United States government department of Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). Falls are the second most common cause of workplace deaths nationwide. Ironworker Drew Mecutchen, 44, fell from a five-story construction site at a new hospital in North Philadelphia last December and died from his injuries. Mecutchen represents one, of 442 construction workers, who died in falls at job sites last year in America.
-Document all of your injuries and any symptoms.
Assertive Central Florida construction accident litigator, Ziffra, is urging American workers to know their employee rights. Workers’ compensation law was established to safeguard employees who are injured on the job. The State of Florida Workers’ Compensation Law functions as a safety net, allowing workers to quickly receive pay so their families are not financially devastated by their injuries.
Consulting a labor injury attorney, when injured on the job, may help U.S. workers receive the medical attention and lost wages they are entitled to under workers’ compensation insurance benefits laws.

industry_corpus2: Law & Justice


text: Figuring out how to learn WordPress is a daunting task. Where do you begin and what information is actually useful? Relax. You’re in the right place. There are numerous resources on how to learn WordPress and we will discuss some of the most helpful ones.

industry_corpus2: Computing & Telecommunications


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One of the most powerful volcanoes in Europe could be no longer dormant.
Öræfajökull, Iceland’s biggest and most active volcano, is showing signs that it is becoming active after centuries of slumber.
Scientists have detected geothermal activity coming from the volcano, leading Icelandic authorities to state that they are no longer certain it is dormant, reported Iceland Magazine.
Recent satellite images show that a 1-kilometer-wide “ice cauldron” has formed in the volcano’s caldera, the large cauldron-like depression at the top.
Scientists believe the caldera has released geothermal water, which was detected flowing into a nearby glacial river. A distinctive sulphuric smell has also been noticed.
Airlines have been put on a “yellow warning” for “security reasons because we do not really know much about Öræfajökull or how it behaves since it last visited 1727 and before 1362,” Bryndís Ýr Gísladóttir, a natural resource specialist told Morgunbladid.
Öræfajökull last erupted in 1727 in what experts says was the second most deadly eruption in Iceland’s history.
In 1362 a steam blast eruption was reported to have killed all inhabitants in up to 40 farms near the volcano.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office said in a statement: “Although there has been significant geothermal activity in the Öræfajökull caldera, there are no signs of an imminent volcanic eruption.
International Business Times reported that if Öræfajökull erupts it could affect two of Iceland’s most popular tourist areas, which are located near to the volcano.

industry_corpus2: Power & Energy


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CLIMATE CHANGE IS UPON US. HOW ARE WE PLANNING FOR IT? | "Global Possibilities"
Home » Architecture » CLIMATE CHANGE IS UPON US. HOW ARE WE PLANNING FOR IT?
In his 1972 science fiction novel The Gods Themselves, which takes place a century after an ecological and economic collapse that reduces the world’s population from six billion to two billion people, Isaac Asimov wrote: “The easiest way to solve a problem is to deny it exists.” For too long now, that has been the collective mindset toward climate change of too many. But the escalating rise of sea levels that might one day have been imagined as science fiction is now a reality. The result is that solutions that could once be addressed through mitigation may now require profound adaptation – and in many cases, at a massive urban scale.
For decades, the scientific community has been sounding a clarion call for greater attention to carbon emissions. Now, with the potential for multi-meter rises in sea levels before the next century, it’s clear that the impacts of climate change will be difficult for many of us alive today, catastrophic for some in the near term, and frighteningly uncertain for our children and the generations of children that follow. Though Paris is a great step, and even with the best of intentions, we can no longer just mitigate our way out of this mess. Responsibility for the managing the problem will now be shouldered as well by a new breed of urban designers and architects, evacuation planners, and engineers who will be left to sort out the massive physical challenges that lie ahead.
Some of the earliest adapters are on the southern coast of Louisiana, where in addition to sea level rise, the land is also sinking, with a combined estimated sea level rise of around four feet – and perhaps more – by the turn of the century. Accepting some of this reality, the state is already implementing a plan to re-engage the power of nature – in this case, the Mississippi River and its distributaries – to push back against the encroaching sea. Regardless, in the next few decades, the mouth of the Mississippi River will likely need to be moved more than 40 miles inland to maintain its navigability. In just this area, around the river’s mouth, whole towns and settlements will be slowly inundated, forcing more than 8,000 local residents to either raise their homes, schools, hospitals and roads as high as 18 feet above current ground levels – or move to higher ground, to cities like Baton Rouge or New Orleans. And unless large-scale restoration projects such as Mississippi River sediment diversions are employed to rebuild surrounding wetlands, the Crescent City itself will likely morph from a coastal city to an island as early as 2100. Growing awareness of these challenges is forcing the state to begin to engage with ideas around resettlement and relocation across the entire Louisiana coast, with implications for the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
Now think about what this looks like in hundreds of other coastal cities around the world. For urban planners and designers, these impacts raise serious questions, some of which are fundamental to the profession itself.
As vast rural and urban populations are forced to move further inland, where will they settle? Will our descendants live to see the Appalachian Mountains chewed up by the same wasteful and inefficient straggle that previously consumed our planet’s most vulnerable farmlands and coastal estuaries? And even though higher densities for horizontal development have recently become part of a new planning lexicon, in this new and evolving context, what do we really mean by density?
Live with and not against nature. We are paying a huge price for ignoring this principle. We should stop doing it. In this case, that means re-engaging natural and sustainable “infrastructure” to provide support and protection, and creating a more sustainable balance between manmade and natural habitats.
Support systems for planning and decision-making that will allow citizens to equitably participate in the creation of their own futures, as they face the almost existential threats that lie ahead.
Embrace more efficient transportation and distribution systems: Crowd-sharing networks, bikeways, drone deliveries, and other carbon saving, pollution limiting, alternatives.
Create smaller and smarter dwelling units, with sustainable ratios of square feet per person that operate in harmony with more creative, expansive and communal public spaces.
Develop new coalitions between governments, businesses, educators, and all community stakeholders. Look at cities like New Orleans, Minneapolis, Austin, Louisville, Chattanooga, Portland and others for inspiration.
Steve Cochran is Associate Vice President, Coastal Protection at the Environmental Defense Fund, where he has overall responsibility for EDF’s coastal protection efforts.

industry_corpus2: Real Estate & Construction


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This post is in response to Travel theme: Green on Where’s my backpack? blog.
Green is one of my favourite colour, I love nature and green is one of the most abundant colors in nature! As one of the major colour that makes me think about nature, I like it because thinking about nature it all makes sense and green can make me feel relaxed and comforted!
Maybe is not just a sensation if you think about traffic lights, almost everywhere “green light” means “safe to go” so, green is almost universally used as a sign to indicate “safety”!

industry_corpus2: Travel & Geography


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That place had been getting a lot of attention. A lot of unwanted, unwarranted attention in my opinion. I mean, who cares about being trained into becoming a blue-blood English spouting pariah, when your ‘friends’ already laugh at you for your inability to converse colloquially and double over at your innocently silly innuendos. But still, it gnawed at my heart that I still couldn’t enter there even if I wanted to.
It was painful, how could it not be? Wasn’t English a language? Why then, did I get laughed at for being so fairly good at it? Why then, did the neighborhood kid’s snicker and point at me whenever my mother made me sing the popular tunes while we were out on the balcony? Was my mixed schooling such an abomination? I wished, cried, prayed I’d lose that ‘Angrezi’ lilt in my voice already, forget English altogether. But then again, I and English were inseparable halves, of internal commitment, that went deeper, than even I wanted to admit.
News of that place spread, like wildfire. The neighborhood ‘biggies’ as they called themselves called out very hurtful comments, ‘Yei! Bilijirle! Allige hoge!’, ‘Bilimari! Oodi hoge! Illi yaake iddiya? All I could do, all that I did, was lock myself in my room and weep, till I fell asleep in utter exhaustion. A very draining daily practice.
The library looked quaint, just 12 racks of books. It felt really mechanized, cold with the A.C on high blast and pleasantly silent. Too silent. I pinched myself as Father finished the final part of my admission procedure, to make sure it wasn’t a dream. A big poster with ‘Welcome to the British Council Library’ screamed its welcome. I wandered among the racks and ended up in front of the Drama rack, where regally bound copies of the plays by Shakespeare, Marlow, Dryden, and others stood ready to be engrossed and lost in. Again, the question persisted, was this an epic joke or dream I’m falling prey to? “Well Darling, here you go! Which book do you want for this week?” said Father as he handed me a card. My Membership Card. Well, this sure was a change of pace for me at last. A place where I could belong.

industry_corpus2: Subject Education


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In a URL, a hash mark, number sign, or pound sign ( # ) points a browser to a specific spot in a page or website. It is used to separate the URI of an object from a fragment identifier.
The part with the #money doesn't change the url, when you click to the url its still only going to the base url then moving you down the page.
Are you saying that the link with the # shows as valid?
If you can give a specific example of a real site that might be helpful.
"Are you saying that the link with the # shows as valid?"
Well, I think it ignores it completely neither valid nor invalid. It's quite all right. Just making sure I didn't do something wrong on my end. i just have to be vigilant that my links being tested aren't anchor links. I had hoped that it would still try and validate that base URL and come back as a broken link. Thanks Loopline for explaining it a bit. I was just looking for an alternative to having 300+ WP Broken Link Checker plugins installed on my server. InfiniteWP + plugin solved my issue. Just uses resources.
Well I would think it would look at the base url, but I cant' see it failing. so if you had some specific real world examples, that would be easier to test and determine.


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Severe winter weather is the third cause of insured disasters after hurricanes and tornadoes, according to the Insurance Information Institute. This means that this is a very common occurrence, but luckily for you, these damages can be preventable. Losses from snow and ice cost an average of about $1.2 billion a year, but will most likely double this year.
It is always a very good idea to prepare your home for cold temperatures because it is the number one way to avoid problems that can end up costing you’re a lot of money, such as frozen or burst pipes. Did you know, the average claim for damage from a frozen pipe alone is about $18,000?
So why is this so high? The repairing process is actually the least costly part of a claim. The damage to the home and the items in it from water damage is what really runs up the bill. But, what is the most costly? According to a claims officer, the answer to that is repairing the flooring and drywall.
Another winter-claim related category is when trees collapse due to the weight of ice and snow. On average, this ranges from $10,000 in the West, and $3,000 to $5,000 in other parts of the country. Obviously, if you have a valid claim you won’t have to worry about paying the full costs of the damage out of pocket, but that is the whole point of having insurance. But, most companies do have a deductible policy that you will be responsible to paying for. And if your claim exceeds any limits on your policy you may also be responsible to pay for additional costs.
A spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute stated that most standard homeowner’s and renter’s policies cover damages from burst pipes and other winter related issues, even collapsed roofs from ice dams and the weight of snow.
Unfortunately not all winter damages are covered. For example, if melting snow makes its way into the septic systems, it could cause a sewer backup in your basement that wouldn’t be covered. That is why it is a good idea to check your policy ahead of time so that you know exactly what if covered and what the limits are. If you have expensive items that could possibly be damaged from burst pipes, you might want to purchase more coverage.
How do I prevent frozen pipes in my home?
First, make sure that your heating system is in tip top shape and that any pipes that may be exposed to the extreme cold are properly insulated. If you take a vacation in the winter, make sure that you leave the heat on at least 65 degrees. If you are planning to take an extended vacation, have your water turned off and pipes drained.
What do I do if my pipes do freeze?
The first thing you will want to do is shut off the water at the main to prevent any further damage from occurring. That is why it is always a good idea to know where your main shut off valve is. After that, you should call a plumber or restoration contractor to do the initial repairs and cleanup. Taking photos of the damage is a good idea because then you will have visual evidence to back up your claim.
How do I prevent ice dams?
The best way to do this is by using a “roof rake” which is a tool that has a large handle and will remove snow from your roof. It is about $40 to $50 in hardware stores or online. Also, make sure that your gutters are cleaned regularly so that less water is likely to be stored in there and freeze.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on January 7, 2015 by David Quinn.

industry_corpus2: Finance & Economics


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Below are the nutrition facts and Weight Watchers points for BK Fresh Apple Slices from BK .
There are 25 calories in BK Fresh Apple Slices from Burger King. Most of those calories come from carbohydrates (100%).
Is the BK Fresh Apple Slices good for you?
Does the BK Fresh Apple Slices taste good?


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Our EY programme is where fostering a lifetime love of learning begins and is specially designed for students 2 to 6 years of age.
At SSIS we believe that each child enters our school already possessing a wide range of knowledge, skills, attitudes and understandings about the world and their place within it. It is our aim to celebrate and build on each child’s strengths, identify areas for growth and development, and work in partnership with parents to create a learning environment where all children will feel safe, supported, and successful.
Our Early Years programme is specially designed for our youngest international students age 2 to 6 years. We offer four grade levels that build upon each other year after year. At age 2, children are age appropriate to start in our Pre-Nursery classroom. Students will move up to Nursery, Pre-Kindergarten and then Kindergarten at the end of each school year.
Within each grade level, all children are enrolled in homeroom groups led by experienced teaching teams and supported by classroom Ayis. Each homeroom team consists of an expatriate teacher and a Chinese teacher; who plan, teach and assess learning together. In addition, children receive instruction in Chinese, Visual Arts, Music, Library and Physical Education from our specialist teachers.


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Hi, I am interested in your 2007 Ferrari F430 Spider (stock #C2024) listed on Autotrader for $134,500. I'd like to get more information about this vehicle and confirm its availability.
Champion Motors International is proud to offer this exceptionally low mileage F430 Spider in beautiful condition throughout. Properly maintained by Ferrari throughout the years, we have the receipts from the seasonal service performed just 10 miles ago by an authorized Ferrari service center. Driven just over 6,000 miles, one look and you will immediately see this was garaged kept. Equipped with the following options: Red Brake Calipers, 6 CD Changer, Carbon Fibre Accents, Daytona Style Seats, Electric Seats, Carbon Fibre Rear Moulding, "Scuderia Ferrari" Shields, High Power HIFI with Subwoofer and Leather Rear Shelf/Door. We have the original radio, books, cover, air pump and tools. Please contact our sales team to learn more. We can assist with enclosed transportation to virtually anywhere.While every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of this information, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions contained on these pages. Please verify any information in question with Champion Motors International.

industry_corpus2: Automobiles


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Self-improvement projects that require us to break old habits are hard. Such projects aren’t settled in a few weeks – instead, I think of them as 3 year construction projects.
One of the many gifts I’ve received from writing everyday here for ~11 years is the ability to work on a few such 3 year construction projects. Writing here forces a level of accountability that I’d otherwise not have. But, while I’ve made visible progress on many self improvement projects, an area where I’ve repeatedly failed is in eliminating filler words.
I was in a conversation recently where I thought I used more filler words – “kinda” and “I think” – than actual words. It was disappointing to hear myself stammer and stutter in my attempts to make a point.
“For a million years, people have been judging each other based on voice. Not just on what we say, but on how we say it.
“Persuade yourself that the person you’re talking to will give you the floor, that he won’t jump in the moment you hesitate. You actually don’t have to keep making sounds in order to keep your turn as the speaker. The fastest speaker is not the speaker who is heard best or even most.
Communicating constructively and with clarity is one of my 2019 themes. Unlike in past attempts, I intend to stick with the filler words this time till it gets solved.
Fourth time’s a charm, I hope.
What percentage of our use of “I feel” is actually followed by a feeling?
When we use phrases like “I feel that” or “I feel like,” we communicate thoughts and judgments instead of feelings. The appropriate use of “I feel” would be to say “I feel hurt” or “I feel frustrated.” Even saying “I feel misunderstood” communicates a judgment.
There is great power in communicating feelings and needs because they enable us to focus on the issue at hand while ensuring we move past passing judgments about others. But, channeling that power requires us to use language the way it was intended.
And, the first step to that is to pay attention to the language we use.. and misuse.
My biggest reflection from this idea is the importance of clarity in our bid to communicate constructively. When I wrote out my theme – “Communicate constructively and with clarity” – I thought of these as two separate goals. But, they’re likely more related than I initially thought.
When I was recommended “Nonviolent Communication” after I asked for resources on productive communication in October, my first reaction was wondering if the book was for me. “Violent” sounded like a strong word.
…and realized I’d found the exact resource I needed.
As speakers, we overestimate how clearly we communicate. And, as listeners, we overestimate how much we understand.
Aside from long term investments in learning to communicate clearly and becoming better listeners (both valuable), it helps to have a short term counter to this asymmetry. And, the best I’ve found is habitually replaying what we think we just heard and requesting listeners to share what they think they took away.
We aren’t going to solve the overestimation habit (we all like to believe we are above average) – so, we might as well get on with solving the resulting issue.
“The ability to observe without evaluating is the highest form of intelligence.” | J Krishnamurthi.
Our natural instincts tend to have us overdo evaluation and under-do observation. They also push us to conflate both by attempting to do both at the same time.
There’s a time to observe and a time to evaluate. And, learning to keep observation and evaluation separate in our thinking and communication is a superpower because it enables us to have consistently productive and constructive conversations.
Behind every effortless display of skill lies thousands of hours of effortful deliberate practice.
I recently had the opportunity to ask a fantastic communicator about his journey to effortless public speaking. He shared two nuggets.
First, he talked about the commitment he made when he decided to become a great communicator. He realized it mattered to him and wanted to get really good. So, he committed to doing 50 speaking events in the next twelve months. 10 speaking events would be a lot for most people. But, he started with a talk at the local library and went on to complete 50 in about 18 months.
Now that he had established a level of comfort and expertise, the next step was continuous improvement. Before every talk, he asks a friend/colleague to look out for 1-2 things he can do better. By making a specific request, he ensures there’s no cop out “you did great!” answer. He then follows up after the talk on the feedback and incorporates it for the next one. He’s been doing this for a decade.
It is worth repeating again then – behind every effortless display of skill lies thousands of hours of effortful deliberate practice.


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was the noise of a oily green female toad.
And hopping right beside her is the man who would be king.
And if that’s wrong the FBI will clear me of any misconduct.
So follow me to the election.” said the oily green pant suited toad.
With her minions in tow, she hopped along but suddenly slowed.
Coming into view on a collision course came a strutting peacock.
And right behind him was the giant mass of his hat wearing flock.
“But what if it’s made out of paper mache?” a woman began to bawl.
And for his believers he spread his feathers bathed in his conceit.
“Well lookie who’s here,” crowed the peacock.
“Do I hear the great slum lord?” shot back the toad.
“I see you’re back from your Hamptons’ vacation chalet.

industry_corpus2: Others


text:
rattan room divider screens vintage folding 4 panel cane wicker rattan screen room divider fireplace mantel decorating ideas for christmas.
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industry_corpus2: Manufacturing


text:
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text: I took ballet classes up to four times a week trying to build strength and flexibility. I ran and swam helping to build my cardiovascular strength and to find a rhythm that helped me relax. Now I've graduated to a very different kind of workout. My Pilates sessions with Darien have somehow combined all the benefits of my prior athletic endeavors to find relaxation, strength and most of all health. She has a keen sense of the human body and can hone in on particulars even before one realizes what is happening. I'm convinced there's magic involved!


text:
Chrysanthemums have been used in herbal teas and medicine for millennia.
1 Do Mums Do Better in Sunlight or Shade?
4 Can I Plant My Potted Mums Outside?
Hardy mums (Chrysanthemum morifolium) bloom throughout the fall. They require little maintenance and grow best in U.S. Department of Agriculture hardiness zones 5 through 9. They prefer well-draining, fertile and moist soil, in addition to full sunlight. They can be transplanted from pots to the ground in early spring after the first frost, giving them time to develop a full root system, or in the fall before the first frost. Mums are available in a variety of colors, from gold or red to lavender or white.
Select an area with plenty of sunlight and space. Avoid areas exposed to artificial light, such as streetlights or nighttime safety lights, because these can delay flowering.
Mix organic matter, such as peat moss, manure or compost, into the top 2 to 4 inches of the soil.
Dig a hole deep enough for the roots of the potted mums to fit comfortably in it. You can often judge the hole size by the size of the original container, but if the plant is pot bound, you may need to dig deeper.
Loosen the mums from the pot and lift them out carefully at the base. Loosen the roots, and then place the pot in the hole.
Pack the soil lightly around the roots up to the base of the plant. Space any other mums about 18 to 24 inches apart.
Water the mums thoroughly. The soil should remain moist but should not be soaking wet. There's no need to fertilize if you transplant the mums in fall. If you transplant in spring, fertilize them once a month with 10-10-10 or 5-10-5 fertilizer until the end of July.
Pinch off the top inch of the stems until August to encourage compact, bushy growth.
Cut the mums down to the ground after the first frost in fall. Cover them with 3 inches of mulch. Remove the mulch in the springtime after the last frost to encourage the plant to return for another season.
Marie, Shelley. "How to Transplant Potted Hardy Mums." Home Guides | SF Gate, http://homeguides.sfgate.com/transplant-potted-hardy-mums-43088.html. Accessed 22 April 2019.

industry_corpus2: Agriculture & Fisheries


text:
On 1 April 2014 the Bishop Hill blog carried a guest post ‘Dating error’ by Doug Keenan, in which he set out his allegations of research misconduct by Oxford University professor Christopher Bronk Ramsey. Professor Bronk Ramsey is an expert on calibration of radiocarbon dating and author of OxCal, apparently one of the two most widely used radiocarbon calibration programs (the other being Calib, by Stuiver and Reimer). Steve McIntyre and others opined that an allegation of misconduct was inappropriate in this sort of case, and likely to be counter-productive. I entirely agree. Nevertheless, the post prompted an interesting discussion with statistical expert Professor Radford Neal of Toronto University and with Nullius in Verba (an anonymous but statistically-minded commentator). They took issue with Doug’s claims that the statistical methods and resulting probability densities (PDFs) and probability ranges given by OxCal and Calib are wrong. Doug’s arguments, using a partly Bayesian approach he calls a discrete calibration method, are set out in his 2012 peer reviewed paper.
I also commented, saying if one assumes a uniform prior for the true calendar date, then Doug Keenan’s results do not follow from standard Bayesian theory. Although the OxCal and Calib calibration graphs (and the Calib manual) are confusing on the point, Bronk Ramsey’s papers make clear he does use such a uniform prior. I wrote that in my view Bronk Ramsey had followed a defensible approach (since his results flow from applying Bayes’ theorem using that prior), so there was no research misconduct involved, but that his method did not represent best scientific inference.
The final outcome was that Doug accepted what Radford and Nullius said about how the sample measurement should be interpreted as probability, with the implication that his criticism of the calibration method is invalid. However, as I had told Doug originally, I think his criticism of the OxCal and Calib calibration methods is actually valid: I just think that imperfect understanding rather than misconduct on the part of Bronk Ramsey (and of other radiocarbon calibration experts) is involved. Progress in probability and statistics has for a long time been impeded by quasi-philosophical disagreements between theoreticians as to what probability represents and the correct foundations for statistics. Use of what are, in my view, unsatisfactory methods remains common.
Fortunately, regardless of foundational disagreements I think most people (and certainly most scientists) are in practice prepared to judge the appropriateness of statistical estimation methods by how well they perform upon repeated use. In other words, when estimating the value of a fixed but unknown parameter, does the true value lie outside the specified uncertainty range in the indicated proportion of cases?
This so-called frequentist coverage or probability-matching property can be tested by drawing samples at random from the relevant uncertainty distributions. For any assumed distribution of parameter values, a method of producing 5–95% uncertainty ranges can be tested by drawing a large number of samples of possible parameter values from that distribution, and for each drawing a measurement at random according to the measurement uncertainty distribution and estimating a range for the parameter. If the true value of the parameter lies below the bottom end of the range in 5% of cases and above its top in 5% of cases, then that method can be said to exhibit perfect frequentist coverage or exact probability matching (at least at the 5% and 95% probability levels), and would be viewed as a more reliable method than a non-probability-matching one for which those percentages were (say) 3% and 10%. It is also preferable to a method for which those percentages were both 3%, which would imply the uncertainty ranges were unnecessarily wide. Note that in some cases probability-matching accuracy is unaffected by the parameter value distribution assumed.
I’ll now attempt to explain the statistical issues and to provide evidence for my views. I’ll then set up a simplified, analytically tractable, version of the problem and use it to test the probability matching performance of different methods. I’ll leave discussion of the merits of Doug’s methods to the end.
The key point is that OxCal and Calib use a subjective Bayesian method with a wide uniform prior on the parameter being estimated, here calendar age, whilst the observational data provides information about a variable, radiocarbon or 14C age, that has a nonlinear relationship to the parameter of interest. The vast bulk of the uncertainty relates to 14C age – principally measurement and similar errors, but also calibration uncertainty. The situation is thus very similar to that for estimation of climate sensitivity. It seems to me that the OxCal and Calib methods are conceptually wrong, just as use of a uniform prior for estimating climate sensitivity is normally inappropriate.
In the case of climate sensitivity, I have been arguing for a long time that Bayesian methods are only appropriate if one takes an objective approach, using a noninformative prior, rather than a subjective approach (using, typically, a uniform or expert prior). Unfortunately, many statisticians (and all but a few climate scientists) seem not to understand, or at least not to accept, the arguments in favour of an objective Bayesian approach. Most climate sensitivity studies still use subjective Bayesian methods.
Objective Bayesian methods require a noninformative prior. That is, a prior that influences parameter estimation as little as possible: it lets the data ‘speak for themselves’[i]. Bayesian methods generally cannot achieve exact probability matching even with the most noninformative prior, but objective Bayesian methods can often achieve approximate probability matching. In simple cases a uniform prior is quite often noninformative, so that a subjective Bayesian approach that involved using a uniform prior would involve the same calculations and give the same results as an objective Bayesian approach. An example is where the parameter being estimated is linearly related to data, the uncertainties in which represent measurement errors with a fixed distribution. However, where nonlinear relationships are involved a noninformative prior for the parameter is rarely uniform. In complex cases deriving a suitable noninformative prior can be difficult, and in many cases it is impossible to find a prior that has no influence at all on parameter estimation.
Fortunately, in one-dimensional cases where uncertainty involves measurement and similar errors it is often possible to find a completely noninformative prior, with the result that exact probability matching can be achieved. In such cases, the so-called ‘Jeffreys’ prior’ is generally the correct choice, and can be calculated by applying standard formulae. In essence, Jeffreys’ prior can be thought of as a conversion factor between distances in parameter space and distances in data space. Where a data–parameter relationship is linear and the data error distribution is independent of the parameter value, that conversion factor will be fixed, leading to Jeffreys’ prior being uniform. But where a data–parameter relationship is nonlinear and/or the data precision is variable, Jeffreys’ prior achieves noninformativeness by being appropriately non-uniform.
Turning to the specifics of radiocarbon dating, my understanding is as follows. The 14C age uncertainty varies with 14C age, and is lognormal rather than normal (Gaussian). However, the variation in uncertainty is sufficiently slow for the error distribution applying to any particular sample to be taken as Gaussian with a standard deviation that is constant over the width of the distribution, provided the measurement is not close to the background radiation level. It follows that, were one simply estimating the ‘true’ radiocarbon age of the sample, a uniform-in-14C-age prior would be noninformative. Use of such a prior would result in an objective Bayesian estimated posterior PDF for the true 14C age that was Gaussian in form.
However, the key point about radiocarbon dating is that the ‘calibration curve’ relationship of ‘true’ radiocarbon age t14C to the true calendar date ti of the event corresponding to the 14C determination is highly nonlinear. (I will consider only a single event, so i = 1.) It follows that to be noninformative a prior for ti must be non-uniform. Assuming that the desire is to produce uncertainty ranges beyond which – upon repeated use – the true calendar date will fall in a specified proportion of cases, the fact that in reality there may be an equal chance of tilying in any calendar year is irrelevant.
Defensible though it is in terms of subjective Bayesian theory, a uniform prior in titranslates into a highly non-uniform prior for the ‘true’ radiocarbon age (t14C) as inferred from the 14C determination. Applying Bayes’ theorem in the usual way, the posterior density for t14C will then be non-Gaussian.
with the variation of the standard deviation σd with t14C usually being ignored for individual samples.
Figure 1, from Fig. 1 in Doug’s paper, shows an example of an OxCal calibration, with the resulting 95.4% (±2 sigma for a Gaussian distribution) probability range marked by the thin bar above the x-axis. The red curve on the y-axis is centred on the 14C age derived by measurement (the radiocarbon or 14C determination) and shows the likelihood for that determination as a function of true 14C age. The likelihood for a 14C determination is the relative probability, for any given true 14C age, of having obtained that determination given the uncertainty in 14C determinations. The blue calibration curve shows the relationship between true 14C age (on the y-axis) and true calendar age on the x-axis. Its vertical width represents calibration uncertainty. The estimated PDF for calendar age is shown in grey. Ignoring the small effect of the calibration uncertainty, the PDF simply expresses the 14C determination’s likelihood as a function of calendar age. It represents both the likelihood function for the determination and – since a uniform prior for calendar age is used – the posterior PDF for the true calendar age (Bayes’ theorem giving the posterior as the normalised product of the prior and the likelihood function).
By contrast to OxCal’s subjective Bayesian, uniform prior based method, an objective Bayesian approach would involve computing a noninformative prior for ti. The standard choice would normally be Jeffreys’ prior. Doing so is somewhat problematic here in view of the calibration curve not being monotonic – it contains reversals – and also having varying uncertainty.
On that basis, and ignoring also the calibration curve being limited in range, it follows that Jeffreys’ prior for ti would equal the absolute derivative (slope) of calibrated 14C age with respect to calendar date. Moreover, in the absence of non-monotonicity it is known that in a case like this the Jeffreys’ prior is completely noninformative. Jeffreys’ prior would in fact provide exact probability matching – perfect agreement between the objective Bayesian posterior cumulative distribution functions (CDFs – the integrals of PDFs) and the results of repeated testing. The reason for the form here of Jeffreys’ prior is fairly clear – where the calibration curve is steep and hence its derivative with respect to calendar age is large, the error probability (red shaded area) between two nearby values of t14C corresponds to a much smaller ti range than when the derivative is small.
An alternative way of seeing that a noninformative prior for calendar age should be proportional to the derivative of the calibration curve is as follows. One can perform the Bayesian inference step to derive a posterior PDF for the true 14C age, t14C, using a uniform prior for 14C age – which as stated previously is, given the assumed Gaussian error distribution, noninformative. That results in a posterior PDF for 14C age that is identical, up to proportionality, to its likelihood function. Then one can carry out a change of variable from t14C to ti. The standard (Jacobian determinant) formula for converting a PDF between two variables, where one is a function of the other, involves multiplying the PDF, expressed in terms of the new variable, by the absolute derivative of the inverse transformation – the derivative of t14C with respect to ti. Taking this route, the objective posterior PDF for calendar age is the normalised product of the 14C age likelihood function (since the 14C objective Bayesian posterior is proportional to its likelihood function), expressed in terms of calendar age, multiplied by the derivative of t14C with respect to ti. That is identical, as it should be, to the result of direct objective Bayesian inference of calendar age using the Jeffreys’ prior.
In order to make the problem analytically tractable and the performance of different methods – in terms of probability matching – easily testable, I have created a stylised calibration curve. It consists of the sum of three scaled shifted sigmoid functions. The curve exhibits both plateaus and steep regions whilst being smooth and monotonic and having a simple derivative.
Figure 2 shows similar information to Figure 1 but with my stylised calibration curve instead of a real one. The grey wings of the curve represent a fixed calibration curve error, which, as discussed, I absorb into the 14C determination error. The pink curve, showing the Bayesian posterior PDF using a uniform prior in calendar age, corresponds to the grey curve in Figure 1. It is highest over the right hand plateau, which corresponds to the centre of the red radiocarbon age error distribution, but has a non-negligible value over the left hand plateau as well. The figure also shows the objective Jeffreys’ prior (dotted green line), which reflects the derivative of the calibration curve. The objective Bayesian posterior using that prior is shown as the solid green line. As can be seen, it is very different from the uniform-calendar-year-prior based posterior that would be produced by the OxCal or Calib programs for this 14C determination (if they used this calibration curve).
The Jeffreys’ prior (dotted green line) has bumps wherever the calibration curve has a high slope, and is very low in plateau regions. Subjective Bayesians will probably throw up their hands in horror at it, since it would be unphysical to think that the probability of a sample having any particular calendar age depended on the shape of the calibration curve. But that is to mistake the nature of a noninformative prior, here Jeffreys’ prior. A noninformative prior has no direct probabilistic interpretation. As a standard textbook (Bernardo and Smith, 1994) puts it in relation to reference analysis, arguably the most successful approach to objective Bayesian inference: “The positive functions π(θ) [the noninformative reference priors] are merely pragmatically convenient tools for the derivation of reference posterior distributions via Bayes’ theorem”.
Rather than representing a probabilistic description of existing evidence as to a probability distribution for the parameter being estimated, a noninformative prior primarily reflects (at least in straightforward cases) how informative, at differing values of the parameter, the data is expected to be about the parameter. That in turn reflects how precise the data are in the relevant region and how fast expected data values change with the parameter value. This comes back to the relationship between distances in parameter space and distances in data space that I mentioned earlier.
It may be thought that the objective posterior PDF has an artificial shape, with peaks and low regions determined, via the prior, by the vagaries of the calibration curve and not by genuine information as to the true calendar age of the sample. But one shouldn’t pay too much attention to PDF shapes; they can be misleading. What is most important in my view is the calendar age ranges the PDF provides, which for one-sided ranges follow directly from percentage points of the posterior CDF.
By a one-sided x% range I mean the range from the lowest possible value of the parameter (here, zero) to the value, y, at which the range is stated to contain x% of the posterior probability. An x1–x2% range or interval for the parameter is then y1 − y2, where y1 and y2 are the (tops of the) one-sided x1% and x2% ranges. Technically, this is a credible interval, as it relates to Bayesian posterior probability.
By contrast, a (frequentist) x% one-sided confidence interval with a limit of y can, if accurate, be thought of as one calculated to result in values of y such that, upon indefinitely repeated random sampling from the uncertainty distributions involved, the true parameter value will lie below y in x% of cases. By definition, an accurate confidence interval exhibits perfect frequentist coverage and so represents, for an x% interval, exact probability matching. If one-sided Bayesian credible intervals derived using a particular prior pass that test then they and the prior used are said to be probability matching. In general, Bayesian posteriors cannot be perfectly probability matching. But the simplified case presented here falls within an exception to that rule, and use of Jeffreys’ prior should in principle lead to exact probability matching.
The two posterior PDFs in Figure 2 imply very different calendar age uncertainty ranges. As OxCal reports a 95.4% range, I’ll start with the 95.4% ranges lying between the 2.3% and 97.7% points of each posterior CDF. Using a uniform prior, that range is 365–1567 years. Using Jeffreys’ prior, the objective Bayesian 2.3–97.7% range is 320–1636 years – somewhat wider. But for a 5–95% range, the difference is large: 395–1472 years using a uniform prior versus 333–1043 years using Jeffreys’ prior.
Note that OxCal would report a 95.4% highest posterior density (HPD) range rather than a range lying between the 2.3% and 97.7% points the posterior CDF. A 95.4% HPD range is one spanning the region with the highest posterior densities that includes 0.954 probability in total; it is necessarily the narrowest such range. HPD ranges are located differently from those with equal probability in both tails of a probability distribution; they are narrower but not necessarily better.
What about confidence intervals, a non-Bayesian statistician would rightly ask? The obvious way of obtaining confidence intervals is to use likelihood-based inference, specifically the signed root log-likelihood ratio (SRLR). In general, the SRLR only provides approximate confidence intervals. But where, as here, the parameter involved is a monotonic transform of a variable with a Gaussian distribution, SRLR confidence intervals are exact. So what are the 2.3–97.7% and 5–95% SRLR-derived confidence intervals? They are respectively 320–1636 years and 333–1043 years – identical to the objective Bayesian ranges using Jeffreys’ prior, but quite different from those using a uniform prior. I would argue that the coincidence of the Jeffreys’ prior derived objective Bayesian credible intervals and the SRLR confidence intervals reflects the fact that here both methods provide exact probability matching.
Whilst an example is illuminating, in order properly to compare the performance of the different methods one needs to carry out repeated testing of probability matching based on a large number of samples: frequentist coverage testing. Although some Bayesians reject such testing, most people (including most statisticians) want a statistical inference method to produce, over the long run, results that accord with relative frequencies of outcomes from repeated tests involving random draws from the relevant probability distributions. By drawing samples from the same uniform calendar age distribution on which Bronk Ramsey’s method is predicated, we can test how well each method meets that aim. This is a standard way of testing statistical inference methods. Clearly, one wants a method also to produce accurate results for samples that – unbeknownst to the experimenter – are drawn from individual regions of the age range, and not just for samples that have an equal probability of having come from any year throughout the entire range.
I have accordingly carried out frequentist coverage testing, using 10,000 samples drawn at random uniformly from both the full extent of my calibration curve and from various sub-regions of it. For each sampled true calendar age, a 14C determination age is sampled randomly from a Gaussian error distribution. I’ve assumed an error standard deviation of 30 14C years, to include calibration curve uncertainty as well as that in the 14C determination. Whilst in principle I should have used somewhat different illustrative standard deviations for different regions, doing so would not affect the qualitative findings.
In these frequentist coverage tests, for each integral percentage point of probability the proportion of cases where the true calendar age of the sample falls below the upper limit given by the method involved for a one-sided interval extending to that percentage point is computed. The resulting proportions are then plotted against the percentage points they relate to. Perfect probability matching will result in a straight line going from (0%, 0) to (100%,1). I test both subjective and objective Bayesian methods, using for calendar age respectively a uniform prior and Jeffreys’ prior. I also test the signed root log-likelihood ratio method.
For the Bayesian method using a uniform prior, I also test the coverage of the HPD regions that OxCal reports. As HPD regions are two-sided, I compute the proportion of cases in which the true calendar age falls within the calculated HPD region for each integral percentage HPD region. Since usually only ranges that contain a majority of the estimated posterior probability are of interest, only the right hand half of the HPD curves (HPD ranges exceeding 50%) is of practical significance. Note that the title and y-axis label in the frequentist coverage test figures refer to one-sided regions and should in relation to HPD regions be interpreted in accordance with the foregoing explanation.
I’ll start with the entire range, except that I don’t sample from the 100 years at each end of the calibration curve. That is because otherwise a significant proportion of samples result in non-negligible likelihood falling outside the limits of the calibration curve. Figure 3 accordingly shows probability matching with true calendar ages drawn uniformly from years 100–1900. The results are shown for four methods. The first two are subjective Bayesian using a uniform prior as per Bronk Ramsey – from percentage points of the posterior CDF and from highest posterior density regions. The third is objective Bayesian employing Jeffreys’ prior, from percentage points of the posterior CDF. The fourth uses the non-Bayesian signed root log-likelihood ratio (SRLR) method. In this case, all four methods give good probability matching – their curves lie very close to the dotted black straight line that represents perfect matching.
Now let’s look at sub-periods of the full 100–1900 year period. I’ve picked periods representing both ranges over which the calibration curve is mainly flattish and those where it is mainly steep. I start with years 100–500, over most of which the calibration curve is steep. The results are shown in Figure 4. Over this period, SRLR gives essentially perfect matching, while the Bayesian methods give mixed results. Jeffreys’ prior gives very good matching – not quite perfect, probably because for some samples there is non-negligible likelihood at year zero. However, posterior CDF points using a uniform prior don’t provide very good matching, particularly for small values of the CDF (corresponding to the lower bound of two-sided uncertainty ranges). Posterior HPD regions provide rather better, but still noticeably imperfect, matching.
Figure 5 shows results for the 500–1000 range, which is flat except near 1000 years. The conclusions are much as for 100–500 years save that Jeffreys’ prior now gives perfect matching and that mismatching from posterior CDF points resulting from a uniform prior give smaller errors (and in the opposite direction) than for 100–500 years.
Now we’ll take the 1000–1100 years range, which asymmetrically covers a steep region in between two plateaus of the calibration curve. As Figure 6 shows, this really separates the sheep from the goats. The SRLR and objective Bayesian methods continue to provide virtually perfect probability matching. But the mismatching from the posterior CDF points resulting from a uniform prior Bayesian method is truly dreadful, as is that from HPD regions derived using that method. The true calendar age would only lie inside a reported 90% HPD region for some 75% of samples. And over 50% of samples would fall below the bottom of a 10–90% credible region given by the posterior CDF points using a uniform prior. Not a very credible region at all.
Figure 7 shows that for the next range, 1100–1500 years, where the calibration curve is largely flat, the SRLR and objective Bayesian methods again provide virtually perfect probability matching. However, the uniform prior Bayesian method again fails to provide reasonable probability matching, although not as spectacularly badly as over 1000–1100 years. In this case, symmetrical credible regions derived from posterior CDF percentage points, and HPD regions of over 50% in size, will generally contain a significantly higher proportion of the samples than the stated probability level of the region – the regions will be unnecessarily wide.
Finally, Figure 8 shows probability matching for the mainly steep 1500–1900 years range. Results are similar to those for years 100–500, although the uniform prior Bayesian method gives rather worse matching than it does for years 100–500. Using a uniform prior, the true calendar age lies outside the HPD region noticeably more often than it should, and lies beyond the top of credible regions derived from the posterior CDF twice as often as it should.
The results of the testing are pretty clear. In whatever range the true calendar age of the sample lies, both the objective Bayesian method using a noninformative Jeffreys’ prior and the non-Bayesian SRLR method provide excellent probability matching – almost perfect frequentist coverage. Both variants of the subjective Bayesian method using a uniform prior are unreliable. The HPD regions that OxCal provides give less poor coverage than two-sided credible intervals derived from percentage points of the uniform prior posterior CDF, but at the expense of not giving any information as to how the missing probability is divided between the regions above and below the HPD region. For both variants of the uniform prior subjective Bayesian method, probability matching is nothing like exact except in the unrealistic case where the sample is drawn equally from the entire calibration range – in which case over-coverage errors in some regions on average cancel out with under-coverage errors in other regions, probably reflecting the near symmetrical form of the stylised overall calibration curve.
I have repeated the above tests using 14C error standard deviations of 10 years and 60 years instead of 30 years. Results are qualitatively the same.
Although I think my stylised calibration curve captures the essence of the principal statistical problem affecting radiocarbon calibration, unlike real 14C calibration curves it is monotonic. It also doesn’t exhibit variation of calibration error with age, but such variation shouldn’t have a significant impact unless, over the range where the likelihood function for the sample is significant, it is substantial in relation to 14C determination error. Non-monotonicity is more of an issue, and could lead to noticeable differences between inference from an objective Bayesian method using Jeffreys’ prior and from the SRLR method. If so, I think the SRLR results are probably to be preferred, where it gives a unique contiguous confidence interval. Jeffreys’ prior, which in effect converts length elements in 14C space to length elements in calendar age space, may convert single length elements in 14C space to multiple length elements in calendar age space when the same 14C age corresponds to multiple calendar ages, thus over-representing in the posterior distribution the affected parts of the 14C error distribution probability. Initially I was concerned that the non-monotonicity problem was exacerbated by the existence of calibration curve error, which results in uncertainty in the derivative of 14C age with respect to calendar age and hence in Jeffreys’ prior. However, I now don’t think that is the case.
Does the foregoing mean the SRLR method is better than an objective Bayesian method? In this case, perhaps, although the standard form of SRLR isn’t suited to badly non-monotonic parameter–data relationships and non-contiguous uncertainty ranges. More generally, the SRLR method provides less accurate probability matching when error distributions are neither normal nor a transforms of a normal.
Many people may be surprised that the actual probability distribution of the calendar date of samples for which radiocarbon determinations are carried out is of no relevance to the choice of a prior that leads to accurate uncertainty ranges and hence is, IMO, appropriate for scientific inference. Certainly most climate scientists don’t seem to understand the corresponding point in relation to climate sensitivity. The key point here is that the objective Bayesian and the SRLR methods both provide exact probability matching whatever the true calendar date of the sample is (provided it is not near the end of the calibration curve). Since they provide exact probability matching for each individual calendar date, they are bound to provide exact probability matching whatever probability distribution for calendar date is assumed by the drawing of samples.
How do the SRLR and objective Bayesian methods provide exact probability matching for each individual calendar date? It is easier to see that for the SRLR method. Suppose samples having the same fixed calendar date are repeatedly drawn from the radiocarbon and calibration uncertainty distributions. The radiocarbon determination will be more than two standard deviations (of the combined radiocarbon and calibration uncertainty level) below the exact calibration curve value for the true calendar date in 2.3% of samples. The SRLR method sets its 97.7% bound at two standard deviations above the radiocarbon determination, using the exact calibration curve to convert this to a calendar date. That bound must necessarily lie at or above the calibration curve value for the true calendar date in 97.7% of samples. Ignoring non-monotonicity, it follows that the true calendar date will not exceed the upper bound in 97.7% of cases. The bound is, given the statistical model, an exact confidence limit by construction. Essentially Jeffreys’ prior achieves the same result in the objective Bayesian case, but through operating on probability density rather than on its integral, cumulative probability.
Bayesian methods also have the advantage that they can naturally incorporate existing information about parameter values. That might arise where, for instance, a non-radiocarbon based dating method had already been used to estimate a posterior PDF for the calendar age of a sample. But even assuming there is genuine and objective probabilistic prior information as to the true calendar year, what the textbooks tell one to do may not be correct. Suppose the form of the data–parameter relationship differs between the existing and new information, and it is wished to use Bayes’ theorem to update, using the likelihood from the new radiocarbon measurement, a posterior PDF that correctly reflects the existing information. Then simply using that existing posterior PDF as the prior and applying Bayes’ theorem in the standard way will not give an objective posterior probability density for the true calendar year that correctly combines the information in the new measurement with that in the original posterior PDF. It is necessary to use instead a modified form of Bayesian updating (details of which are set out in my paper at http://arxiv.org/abs/1308.2791). It follows that it the existing information is simply that the sample must have originated between two known calendar dates, with no previous information as to how likely it was to have come from any part of the period those dates define, then just using a uniform prior set to zero outside that period would bias estimation and be unscientific.
And how does Doug Keenan’s ‘discrete’ calibration method fit in to all this? So far as I can see, the uncertainty ranges it provides will be considerably closer to those derived using objective Bayesian or SRLR methods than to those given by the OxCal and Calib methods, even though like them it uses Bayes’ theorem with a uniform prior. That is because, like the SRLR and (given monotonicity) Jeffreys’ prior based objective Bayesian methods, Doug’s method correctly converts, so far as radiocarbon determination error goes, between probability in 14C space and probability in calendar year space. I think Doug’s treatment of calibration curve error avoids, through renormalisation, the multiple counting of 14C error probability that may affect a Jeffreys’ prior based objective Bayesian method when the calibration curve is non-monotonic. However, I’m not convinced that his treatment of calibration curve uncertainty is noninformative even in the absence of it varying with calendar age. Whether that makes much difference in practice, given that 14C determinant error appears normally to be the larger of the two uncertainties by some way, is unclear to me.
Does the uniform prior subjective Bayesian method nevertheless have advantages? Probably. It may cope with monotonicity better than the basic objective Bayesian method I have set out, particularly where that leads to non-contiguous uncertainty ranges. It may also make it simpler to take advantage of chronological information where there is more than one sample. And maybe in many applications it is felt more important to have realistic looking posterior PDFs than uncertainty ranges that accurately reflect how likely the true calendar date is to lie within them.
I can’t help wondering whether it might help if people concentrated on putting interpretations on CDFs rather than PDFs. Might it be better to display the likelihood function from a radiocarbon determination (which would be identical to the subjective Bayesian posterior PDF based on a uniform prior) instead of a posterior PDF, and just to use an objective Bayesian PDF (or the SRLR) to derive the uncertainty ranges? That way one would both get a realistic picture of what calendar age ranges were supported by the data, and a range that the true age did lie above or below in the stated percentage of instances.
Professor Bronk Ramsey considers that knowledge of the radiocarbon calibration curve does give us quantitative information on the prior for 14C ‘age’. He argues that the belief that in reality calendar dates of samples are spread uniformly means that a non-uniform prior in 14C age is both to be expected and is what you would want. That would be fine if the prior assumption made about calendar dates actually conveyed useful information.
Where genuine prior information exists, one can suppose that it is equivalent to a notional observation with a certain probability density, from which a posterior density of the parameter given that observationhas been calculated using Bayes’ theorem with a noninformative ‘pre-prior’, with the thus computed posterior density being employed as the prior density (Hartigan, 1965).
However, a uniform prior over the whole real line conveys no information. Under Hartigan’s formulation, it’s notional observation has a flat likelihood function and a flat pre-prior. Suppose the transformation from calendar date to 14C age using the calibration curve is effected before the application of Bayes’ theorem to the notional observation for a uniform prior. Then its likelihood function remains flat – what becomes non-uniform is the pre-prior. The corresponding actual prior (likelihood function for notional observation multiplied by the pre-prior) in 14C age space is therefore nonlinear, as claimed. But when the modified form of Bayesian updating set out in my arXiv paper is applied, that prior has no influence on the shape of the resulting posterior PDF for true 14C age and nor, therefore, for the posterior for calendar date. In order to affect an objective Bayesian posterior, one has to put some actual prior information in. For instance, that could be in the form of a Gaussian distribution for calendar date. In practice, it may be more realistic to do so for the relationship between the calendar dates of two samples, perhaps based on their physical separation, than for single samples.
Let me give a hypothetical non-radiocarbon example that throws light on the uniform prior issue. Suppose that a satellite has fallen to Earth and the aim is to recover the one part that will have survived atmospheric re-entry. It is known that it will lie within a 100 km wide strip around the Earth’s circumference, but there is no reason to think it more likely to lie in any part of that strip than another, apart from evidence from one sighting from space. Unfortunately, that sighting is not very precise, and the measurement it provides (with Gaussian error) is non-linearly related to distance on the ground. Worse, although the sighting makes clear which side of the Earth the satellite part has hit, the measurement is aliased and sightings in two different areas of the visible side cannot be distinguished. The situation is illustrated probabilistically in Figure 9.
In Figure 9, the measurement error distribution is symmetrically bimodal, reflecting the aliasing. Suppose one uses a uniform prior for the parameter, here ground distance across the side of the Earth visible when the sighting was made, on the basis that the item is as likely to have landed in any part of the 100 km wide strip as in any other. Then the posterior PDF will indicate an 0.825 probability that the item lies at a location below 900 (in the arbitrary units used). If one instead uses Jeffreys’ prior, the objective Bayesian posterior will indicate a 0.500 probability that it does so. If you had to bet on whether the item was eventually found (assume that it is found) at a location below 900, what would you consider fair odds, and why?
Returning now to radiocarbon calibration, there seems to me no doubt that, whatever the most accurate method available is, Doug is right about a subjective Bayesian method using a uniform prior being problematical. By problematical, I mean that calibration ranges from OxCal, Calib and similar calibration software will be inaccurate, to an extent varying from case to case. Does that mean Bronk Ramsey is guilty of research misconduct? As I said initially, certainly not in my view. Subjective Bayesian methods are widely used and are regarded by many intelligent people, including statistically trained ones, as being theoretically justified. I think views on that will eventually change, and the shortcomings and limits of validity of subjective Bayesian methods will become recognised. We shall see. There are deep philosophical differences involved as to how to interpret probability. Subjective Bayesian posterior probability represents a personal degree of belief. Objective Bayesian posterior probability could be seen as, ideally, reflecting what the evidence obtained implies. It could be a long time before agreement is reached – there aren’t many areas of mathematics where the foundations and philosophical interpretation of the subject matter are still being argued over after a quarter of a millennium!
[i] A statistical model is still involved, but no information as to the value of the parameter being estimated is introduced as such. Only in certain cases is it possible to find a prior that has no influence whatsoever upon parameter estimation. In other cases what can be sought is a prior that has minimal effect, relative to the data, on the final inference (Bernardo and Smith, 1994, section 5.4).
[ii] I am advised by Professor Bronk Ramsey that the method was originally derived by the Groningen radiocarbon group, with other notable related subsequent statistical publications by Caitlin Buck and her group and Geoff Nicholls.

industry_corpus2: Math & Statistics


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Does his ability stack? The way the card is written using the word "one" doesn't make it sound like it does. I have a combo in mind for this card and need to know for sure. Thanx!
Each sidekick die that dies gives each Blue Beetle +2A until end of turn.


text:
Get out and have a ball with the neighbors, friends, or family tonight! Happy 4th of July!
Our company finally went home!


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At Reliant, we sure think they do. No rating system is perfect and anyone designing a network of high quality providers will have their own criteria, but for general comparison, the CMS Star Rating system is the most comprehensive and widely used measurement of evidenced based processes, outcomes and patient feedback. So do Star Ratings Matter? You bet they do and we couldn’t be more proud of our 4.5 Stars for Quality and 4.0 Stars for Satisfaction. If you are choosing an agency, choose Reliant because we deliver results.
The Quality of Patient Care Star Rating is based on Oasis assessments and Medicare claims data. These findings were first published in July, 2015. The rating takes into effect 9 measures including 3 Process measures and 6 Outcome measures. Process measures include timely initiation of care, drug education and flu immunization. Outcome measures include improvements in ambulation, bed transfer, bathing, pain, shortness of breath and hospitalization. No measure is perfect but the CMS Star rating on Quality gives a strong directional indication of a home health agency’s ability to deliver high quality care.
Patient Survey Star Ratings are based on the patient experience of care measures. These ratings were first published on home health compare in January, 2016. The Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Home Health Care Survey is designed to measure the experiences of people receiving home health from Medicare certified home health agencies. HHCAHPs surveys are conducted by independent CMS approved survey vendors. The survey is composed of 34 items in three sections covering Care of Patients, Communications and Specific Care Issues.


text:
Your sweet tooth will soar to new heights with this adorable 3D Giraffe Safari Cookie Cutter.
Take a trip to the sweetest zoo on earth without even leaving your kitchen! The journey couldn’t be simpler. All you need to do is cut your chosen cookie dough using the four-included shaped cutters, bake the pieces, and then pop the slotted cookies together. These clever treats even stand up on your plate! The two big pieces create the mother Giraffe, and the adorable smaller cutters create a cute baby Giraffe to stand next to its proud Mother. Birthday party sweets are no longer a tall order when these edible giraffes are in the house. Bid a fond farewell forever to store-bought animal crackers now that you’ve got these homemade animal cookies.


text:
Yay not long now then. I start school in about 1 or 2 weeks.
i start the same time as pein.
perhaps more like 18 or 20?
so last island is coming today im guessing?
(2011-08-24, 08:58 PM)Guider456 Wrote: so last island is coming today im guessing?
Thanks to the nearing National Heroes Day and Eid al fitr, 9 days is a perfect amount of time for me. Training is now in session!
Totally off the topic that was at hand lol.
we think 5 days.the island hasnt come out yet.
school is in my way.
Just a few more days and Beta will be here, I will miss the new account I made though, did not take me long to find the legends (^_^), have no clue what I will do with my other 2 accounts besides the AN1K1 one.
Hm, How many more days is it now?
I lost count (silly me).


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Current technology allows it. Investors groups such as Google, Amazon, DHL or Facebook, that develop drones, want it. But the image of our cities’ skies permanently furrowed by hundreds of small drones carrying pizzas, books or cosmetics to their recipients, is far from happening.
Security regulations, anti-terrorist measures, weight limitation and “the last mile” issue – what happens if the receiver is not at home? – prevent this possibility from happening in our urban or urbanized areas.
However, in low populated areas with difficult access such as mountains, wooded areas or islets not far from the coast, drones are proving useful when it comes to delivering medicines and small spare parts of the urgent nature.
The large logistics warehouses and open-space storages of restricted access are a whole different story. In those surroundings, there is a growing romance that is going to go the distance.
Maersk Chile announced a few months ago that thanks to drones they had been able to dispense with ten security employees whose job was to oversee that there were no accidents on their container yard in San Antonio.
These collaborators controlled that there were no outsiders in the areas where large machines circulate (innocently careless truck drivers waiting for containers, disoriented customs inspectors in the line of duty or opportunistic petty thieves), checked the safety of the pallets and observed any sign of alarming signals coming from full containers, among other functions. All these supervisions have passed to be executed efficiently by drones in only a year and a half.
In a nod to the social sensitivity of the customer, Maersk added in his statement that the ten employees ousted by the drones had been assigned to less dangerous tasks.
On the other side, Walmart –American, neoliberal and with no complex- triumphantly informs us that a single drone is doing the same work that used to be done by fifty people.
They refer to continuous inventory work in their giant warehouses in the USA. A little fleet of drones with bar code reading displays permanently flies over the endless metal shelves guided by programs designed to control stocks.
According to Walmart, a single drone scans 600 pallets per hour. They’re not kidding.
And that’s far from it, these little drones not only can complement the security cameras in that task but also – in an incipient way – in picking operations in fraternal cooperation with the robots.
The Non-human Companies are coming.
Gatwick: Three days before Christmas, the second English airport was paralyzed for two days by unidentified drone flights near its runways.
Nine hundred flights suspended, 120,000 passengers affected, two detainees released without charge within a few hours, and important monetary rewards for those who would provide information. The result: nothing at all.
A mid-fly drone break-down can cause serious damage, that’s why there is a limitation for drone flights to be authorized in populated areas.
A new generation of drones with parachutes is on the make for sure!

industry_corpus2: Technology & Research


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The manufacturer of Extron electronic adds an appropriate documentation – an user manual – to his equipment whenever it its produced. With the course of time Extron electronic DVS 406 A is expanded with new functions, so the manuals will be expanded as well. We try to gather various versions of the documents – if there is more than one instruction of the Extron electronic DVS 406 A item, you will find them all.
You should also remember that, while searching for information about Extron electronic DVS 406 A, it is recommended to familiarize with the other equipment of the manufacturer, Extron electronic. The functions in many other items may be familiar, and their user manuals may be more helpful. You should look through similar equipments of the manufacturer, and get to know with their manuals.


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1. I downloaded the appropriate Cavimanus/HS-G700V driver from the website, and after I installed the drivers, the desktop icon does not appear, why?
If the icon does not appear on your screen after you installed the driver, go to Control Panel, it should appear there.
2. Can Cavimanus/HS-G700V be used with a PS3?
Cavimanus HS-G700V only works with Windows, it is not PS3 compatible.
3. I play video games on the PC competitively and I need good mic quality to work, while using Cavimanus/HS-G700V, there is a buzzing sound with my microphone, how to solve this?
Uninstall any current Cavimanus driver, then download the latest drivers from our website. You could also plug the Cavimanus into different computer to check if the same problem occurs, if it does, contact customer support for assistance.
4. What is your global warranty on your products?
5. I bought a Genius product seven days ago. However, it cannot be turned on anymore.
6. We have some problems with your product. I need a service manual to check for potential problems, so can repair it ourselves.


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It is no secret that there are usually not readily available restroom facilities on the sites of most construction projects throughout Gilbert, Wyoming. As this is the case, it’s vital to use portable toilet rental. By renting toilets, your workers will spend far less time waiting in line to use the bathroom and more time working towards meeting deadlines. Call us and our professionals will ensure you have the portable toilets you'll need to keep your operation moving along as smoothly as possible!
The frequency of which your port a potties are emptied is based on the precise situation. Daily emptying for instance is usually suggested for larger events occurring within Gilbert, AR over many days. There's a large number of elements that will determine how frequently this occurs though from the number of port a potties you rent to the number of guests. If you'd like to go over the very best cleaning schedule for your event, then give us a call any time at 877-573-8840 and we'll be happy to chat!
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This book makes the message of the Quran more meaningful for children.
42 easy to read Quran stories.
Designed for use at home or at school, this book makes the message of the Quran more meaningful for children. It’s the perfect way to begin your child’s lifetime adventure of personal Quran reading! Especially chosen for the very young, these stories act as a foundation on which to build a growing knowledge of the Quran.
A note for parents: The text is perhaps more suitable for older children than the illustrations suggest. A wise parent can simplify words and phrases to still make these stories appealing for small children.
Alhamdulilah! For My Mommy is a heart-warming picture book which pays tribute to mothers everywhere.
Alhamdulilah! For My Mommy is a heart-warming picture book which pays tribute to mothers everywhere. The lyrical text tells of a baby girl’s love for her mom sending thanks to Allah for every step in her life.
A wonderful account of the sense of smell given to us by Allah.


text: Add comfort by personalizing your Isuzu NPR-HD with brand new electronics to meet your every need. We carry a large selection of aftermarket electronics and accessories designed for your Isuzu. Find laptop stands, power inverters, refrigerators, coffee makers and so much more to keep you entertained and comfortable while on the road. Make sure your time on the road is as enjoyable as possible by shopping at 4 State Trucks.


text:
Application Support Analyst / Client Support Manager (Microsoft Windows TCP/IP Network). Would you like to work on complex and challenging systems as part of a supportive team with regular learning opportunities and excellent career progression?
As an Application Support Analyst at this global FinTech you will split your time between support and consultancy; you will be responsible for planning, configuring, installing and rolling-out advanced internet based trading exchanges that run on the Microsoft platform and providing 2nd / 3rd line support ensuring that high-level technical consultancy is provided to a mercilessly quality conscious client base.
As an Application Support Analyst / Client Support Manager you will earn a highly competitive salary (to £45k), bonus and a comprehensive benefits package including pension and health care.
Apply now or call to find out more about this Application Support Analyst / Client Support Manager opportunity.