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Hands Off Our Homes is still fighting. We’re meeting monthly (details below) in Central Leeds, we’re still campaigning and giving advice and support. We anticipate more tenants needing this in upcoming months – we really can make a difference if we stick together and spread the message – keep calm, stay put, organise together. Here’s an inspiring story from South London, where a woman has won her bedroom tax money back because her ‘spare bedroom’ is a living room!
Leeds City Council is suffering cuts and this is affecting staff. There may be strike action in the council soon and we want to mobilise around putting pressure on housing workers not to harass tenants. This could be real solidarity in practice – watch this space.
There are SO many grounds to appeal against a bedroom tax. People have won appeals on various different grounds so whatever your circumstances it could well be worth having a go. Please, if you are affected by the bedroom tax and haven’t appealed yet, or know someone affected, PLEASE read this.
Again, if you or anyone you know are affected, please read this.
At a recent meeting of the Anti-Bedroom Tax Federation it was agreed to demonstrate against Eric Pickles (Secretary of State for Homes and Communities) at the CIH Housing conference in Manchester. Contact us if you wish to attend!
It was also agreed to hold a national day of action around welfare and benefits on 11th Sept. This is far wider than the bedroom tax – it’s about welfare and support we all need. Let’s get planning for this – contact us with ideas.
Easy stuff- and it keeps this campaign going. Come along.
We now meet on the first Wednesday of every month at 7pm, at the Unison offices, 160a Woodhouse Lane (opposite the Fenton pub). Next meeting is 2nd July. Do contact us in the meantime!


text: In picture books of religious old masterpieces held by the Louvre, it was particularly the portrayal of hands that inspired AMVK to do these drawings. She was also once struck by an article about how important hands are in contacts with the demented. Hands can connect, help, order, offer calm and give warmth. But they can also destroy. Images of the present crisis in and around Europe are shocking. Her outrage and desire for positive counter-images prompted AMVK to put down on paper the results of her personal reflections. They are coloured by mysterious codes from her unconscious, by theoretical quotes, and by images from art history that are rooted in the collective memory, though the keys to the comprehension of their message have been lost. This is a reaction to Islam, which considers any depiction of Allah as blasphemy and in its recent excesses has taken up an extremely hostile position towards the Christian tradition and our Western culture.

industry_corpus2: Literature & Emotions


text:
When you’re in the market for choice roofing services in Grovetown, GA, Raborns Roofing & Restorations is the company to call. Our roofers are able to provide all around services to the various roofing systems around the area. It doesn’t matter what problem you may be facing, our roofers have it under control. Not only do we offer services the roofs of homes, but we can remedy difficulties with commercial roofs as well. So when you find yourself with a question or are in need of effective roof repairs in Grovetown, GA, don’t wait to give us a call by dialing (706) 814-3207.
If you can’t seem to find the repair or installation that you’re in need of on our lineup above, please contact us at (706) 814-3207. We have in office representatives available that are here happy to respond to all of your inquiries and assist you in any way they possibly can.
Raborns Roofing & Restorations goes above and beyond making sure that you’re getting premium grade roofing repairs and services in Grovetown, GA. Not only that, we want to make sure that the entire process is as stress-free as possible for you. whole process and guarantee to leave the work area as clean as we previously found it.|We come to your home or business, walk you through precisely what we’ll be doing, and leave the site as clean as it was when we started. We believe each of our customers should have access to the best best roofing services available. We provide roofing repairs and other services to commercial and residential sites. Each of our customers’ 100% satisfaction is our primary for us. If you are not totally happy with the finished result, then we have not finished our job. Raborns Roofing & Restorations is the only name you need to know when you are seeking a roofing contractor in Grovetown, GA. Please call us at (706) 814-3207.

industry_corpus2: Real Estate & Construction


text:
At the center of any security program, just like in any business, or marriage, is trust. That’s what makes bug bounty – and all gradients of crowd-sourced security models – difficult for some application defenders inside of banks to digest.
Vulnerability Disclosure Policies are essential notices that give hackers a specified path to report software weaknesses in online service. Such policies are often associated with a specified email alias.
Public Bug Bounties are built atop of vulnerability disclosure policies. They provide monetary incentives to independent security researchers to point out software weaknesses.
Private Bug Bounties are defined by the scope of the program and are not time-bound. However, unlike public programs, only invited security researchers can participate. Those researchers often create more valid results for internal teams to triage.
Crowd-Sourced Penetration Tests – such as Synack and Cobalt – function just like a traditional engagement; only they include a targeted group of testers matched to projects because of their skillsets. The vendors vet their freelancers carefully and treat them more like contractors than freelancers. The end result is on-demand testing guided by a platform that sometimes incentivizes finding bugs where few are discovered.
All of the above rely on a gig economy that gives private companies (and increasingly governments) access to security researchers who either may not be able to or don’t want to work inside of a bank. There are of course security benefits. Continuous testing and (for private and public bug bounties) only paying for valid results. Both are important to the modern realities of digital banking.
When asked about their top concerns about hackers testing their web applications, however, security professionals inside financial institutions (FIs) overwhelmingly questioned whether outsiders could be trusted. See the chart below.
They’re right to worry. Brian Krebs recently unmasked a 22-year-old bug hunter – recognized by both T-Mobile and AT&T for his prowess at identifying security flaws in its respective services – as operating an illegal side-hustle that leveraged some similar flaws he found for the mobile carriers to sell their customers’ personal information.
In 2015, a security researcher upset about a bounty for Instagram went too far. In essence, he hacked the website – publishing a blog post bragging how he exploited the weakness to download SSL certificates and private keys from the site. These are just two of the most high-profile examples.
Earlier this year, we published a report on crowd-sourced security models. The research highlighted the importance of making engagement with independent security researchers part of an FI’s digital banking strategy. Vulnerability disclosure forces internal teams to create procedures to handle how to escalate reported bugs that come from outside the bank.
American Express and Goldman Sachs, for instance, have published detailed instructions on how best to report flaws directly to them. Others have made sure to designate special security-and-responsible-disclosure@ email addresses publicly available.
To their credit, the companies overseeing this testing are aware of issues of trust. The big message at platform vendors – HackerOne and Bugcrowd, included – is independent, security researchers are motivated equally by cash and making the Internet safer.
That’s fine. But, what matters to security executives inside banks is shifting liability. One vendor’s general counsel told me that it’s a cocktail of assurances that keep its customers happy. Indemnities, warranties, insurance, limitations of liability, data protection agreements (under GDPR), security policies and certifications, all contribute.
“It’s part of a larger program where the end goal is that a customer,” they added, “says to itself ‘we have a good and fair and reasonable outcome here.’"
Regardless, on a recent call with an online bank, an executive asked me, Can any of these companies be trusted? My answer… Yes, as long as you shift the risk.
Independent, security researchers are testing your web applications with or without your permission. Banks can either get on board with the idea and partner with those mostly economically incentivized bug hunters or just ignore the fact.

industry_corpus2: Finance & Economics


text:
Persson, Kristin. Materials Data on Ti(BiO3)2 (SG:99) by Materials Project. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.17188/1318027.
Persson, Kristin. Materials Data on Ti(BiO3)2 (SG:99) by Materials Project. United States. doi:10.17188/1318027.

industry_corpus2: Technology & Research


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NEVER place an alzheimers patient at Arborwood.
severely dehydrated, mal- nourished , unable to walk or stand, contracted a severe staff infection and a very serious kidney infection; all of this following 2 serious falls; both while being assisted by care givers, including management.
Nearly 15 miles away, hoping to find 3-4 good options closer to home before looking out this way.
Visited to consider this home. Seems like a good option for an affordable rate. Caring staff, nice size rooms. Small family atmosphere. Limited activities.
Our goal is to provide a safe, home like alternative to traditional, long term care environments.
from the beginning, arborwood has been dedicated to creating a "just like home" feel for the folks we call family. low resident staff ratio's allow our caregivers to develop a bond with each individual. our staff is carefully chosen and based on both their experience and their concern for the needs of our residents.
thank you for your interest in arborwood. we encourage you and your family to blend with ours, as together, we provide your loved one with the dignity of life and quality care you will be proud of. we look forward to introducing you to our residents.
Come in today for a tour and to see for yourself!

industry_corpus2: Health & Medicine


text:
Hire the Best Vinyl Fence Installers in San Diego, CA on HomeAdvisor. Compare Homeowner Reviews from 5 Top San Diego Vinyl or PVC Fence Install services. Get Quotes & Book Instantly.
If you want a fencing material that will last for a lifetime, get it from us. Yes, we take pride in offering durable vinyl fencing in Orange county.
ReliaBuilt Fence Company 760-295-8776, Escondido Fence Contractor Serving all San Diego, Fence Contractor, Fencing services & Installations. with over 35 years of experience in the fencing business.
Vinyl Iron Decks Patio Covers ... Here at So Cal Fence we offer a variety of services for your fence needs at competitive prices.


text:
I am a little bit of a programming languages enthusiast. I try to solve PE problems (same problems multiple times) in different languages to get a feel for the languages. I have used Haskell, C++, Java, Scala, Kotlin, Rust to solve PE problems. My personal experience is that Kotlin and Rust stand out as good languages to solve PE problems.
// Implement a mutator, if needed.
Is this a reasonable way of making sure Arrays are never copied, when passed to functions? Are there any fellow Swift enthusiasts here to provide some information on how best to deal with Arrays in Swift?

industry_corpus2: Programming


text:
Aurangabad: Maoists shot dead the uncle of a BJP MLC, set a house and 10 vehicles on fire in Bihar’s Aurangabad district, a senior police officer said on Sunday.
Superintendent of Police Satya Prakash said the Maoists attacked Sudi Bigaha village under the jurisdiction of Deo Police Station late on Saturday night, during which a man identified as Narendra Singh (55) was shot dead.
Singh is the uncle of Rajan Kumar Singh, a BJP member of Bihar Legislative Council, he said.
According to the SP, the Maoists fired several rounds and set 10 vehicles on fire, including three tractors parked at Narendra Singh’s house. The Maoists also set a house belonging to one Dhananjay Singh, a dafadar with Deo police station, on fire located near Sudi Bigaha village, SP said.
After getting information about the Maoist attack, security forces reached the village and exchanged fire with the Naxals, who then fled from the spot, Prakash said.
Senior police officers, including the SP and CRPF Commandant Saurav Choudhary, are camping in the village.
The SP said police have launched a massive search operation after cordoning off the area.
Meanwhile, the BJP MLC held the police and the state government “responsible” for the attack.
“Naxal attack in the village is the result of mistakes of both the administration and the state government. I had given an application to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the DGP for setting up a police station or at least a police outpost in the village but no action was taken. The administration and the state government are responsible for the incident,” the BJP MLC said.

industry_corpus2: Politics & Administration


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If a function has a lengthy list of named arguments, you can reduce it by representing parameters as map entries. For this purpose, IntelliJ IDEA suggests the Convert parameter to map entry intention action.
Repeat the procedure until all the required named arguments are represented as map entries. Note that all the subsequent conversions are done silently.
On the context menu, choose Convert to class, and specify new class name and the package where the new class will be created. If such package doesn't yet exist, click to create one.
If necessary, choose to change return type of the method.
Click OK to apply changes and perform conversion.
As a result, a class is created, with the fields corresponding to the keys of the original map.
Place the caret somewhere inside the square brackets, and press Ctrl+Alt+V. The expression in brackets is converted to a list or map respectively.


text: Russian Renaissance, a four piece group that uses authentic Russian folk instruments, emerged as the winners of the 2017 M-Prize Chamber competition—and now they’re coming to the Berman! The group plays traditional Russian music while also reimagining tango and jazz on the balalaika, domra/domra alto, button accordion, and balalaika contrabasso. Their passion for music is inherent in their beautiful performance.

industry_corpus2: Film & Entertainment


text:
Please raise your hand America if you like property taxes. I see four or five hands out of scores of millions. Thank you. This explains a lot about the lust that periodically erupts in different states to massively cut back on the amount of property taxes you and I pay. The HR Doctor is one who did not raise his hand earlier since I, too, am not a fan of paying property taxes.
Currently, there is a legislative zeal in Florida which so far is relatively unbridled to take massive whacks at the amount of property tax people pay. Polling suggests that this tax cut idea is very strongly supported.
Of course, the same polling suggests that the most trusted levels of government are local governments, and the most important services to people are those provided by local government. There is a strong feeling among citizens that they donÂ’t want to see services cut.
Half of the HR DoctorÂ’s professional public service career was in California Â— before, during and in the aftermath of Proposition 13, the property tax-cutting citizenÂ’s initiative. IÂ’m feeling a sense of dÃ©jÃ vu because the same lust and the same statements are being made in Florida now as were made then in California. Why the property tax cutting campaign is so popular and what the results might be is certainly much more than a short article can effectively explain. Having said that, letÂ’s try it anyway.
The property tax system needs fundamental reform. It is patently unfair that my property taxes are at one level but across the street in a similar or even identical house, the taxes may be twice as much or more than I pay. The reason is that I may have been in the house for quite a while and my new neighbor across the street is still unpacking boxes from moving in last month.
Property taxes represent the fundamental source of income, not for state governments but for local governments, such as cities, counties, school districts and many special districts. To use a machete instead of a scalpel to slash and burn an extremely important source of local government income without providing a stable alternative is bad decision-making. In places like Florida, the decision-making is being done by people in the state capital who themselves do not depend on property taxes as their number one source of state government revenue.
There is no doubt also that local governments can do more with less (sorry, I heard the whining, but in our hearts we know that itÂ’s possible). A significant challenge to our normal traditional revenue source can produce positive changes as long as the loss is not at a destructive, catastrophic level.
Any major cuts without thoughtful consideration of long-term effects will produce unintended consequences. Many of these consequences will be exactly the opposite of what tax payers are being told to expect from the savings.
Some of the consequences include erosion of the local governmentÂ’s ability over time to respond to population growth, traffic increases, infrastructure deterioration, security demands and the overall quality of life.
It is hard to measure these long-term impacts because they are at least as much qualitative as quantitative. What is the price Â— over time Â— of a library closing at 5 p.m. instead of 9 p.m. or childrenÂ’s programs or other park activities being curtailed? What is the price of a police departmentÂ’s officer-to-population ratio declining? What is the price of the extra two minutes that it may take paramedics to respond to a heart attack call because the departmentÂ’s growth has been stymied, but not the demands for service based on population-driven criteria? What is the price of a county governmentÂ’s increased paralysis in meeting unfunded mandates such as jail population management and indigent care? The point is, with apologies to accountants and auditors, that the unintended consequences are not measurable only by using an Excel spreadsheet. These are quality of life issues which the children and grandchildren of taxpayers will wrestle with because the current generation of state lawmakers thinks in sound bites and with a short-term, Â“next electionÂ” mindset.
Where did many of the entitlements first come from? The answer is the State Legislature. WorkersÂ’ compensation presumption laws are not the product of the County Commission or a City Council. How did the property tax structure get so screwed up in the first place? Look no further than the legislature or citizen initiatives at the state level.
As happened in California, the same state government that can wreak havoc will come to the Â“rescueÂ” and say Â“DonÂ’t worry local governments, and stop whining! The state will provide some form of revenue-sharing.Â” What this really means, however, is a power grab by state government to usurp local government authority. It could also result in a new annual journey by local government representatives to the state capitols each year Â— a local government Â“trail of tears,Â” to be overly dramatic, asking for state legislative help each year in order for government programs to survive and grow as they need to in a changing world.
So, fellow taxpayers, letÂ’s enjoy our $600 or $800 property tax savings now because weÂ’re going to need much more than that to make up for the deficit ahead in the long-term ability of our best and most trusted government entities to provide the services we demand. The hurricane Â“truckÂ” in the State Capitol appears to be on a downhill road with no brakes. We will spend years figuring out how to fix the erosive effects of what is likely to happen if it makes taxpayer landfall!


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I hope my pick for the most significant book of 2013 will surprise you. It surprises me. For one thing, it's not a book. It wasn't published in 2013. And I've never mentioned it on Litkicks before.
Before I explain, here's a quick wrap-up of my year of reading and blogging. There was a lot of philosophy, history and politics. Early in 2013, I got into Jacques Derrida. This was for me a belated discovery (isn't Derrida supposed to be sophomoric? I'm no sophomore) but a happy one. In July I took a trip to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania for the 150th anniversary of that amazing Civil War battle, and then went back home to begin obsessively reading a whole lot of books about the American Civil War. I'm planning to write more about the literary legacy of the Civil War as the battlefield sesquicentennials of Wilderness and Spotsylvania loom. Continuing my weird march through what may seem to my readers to be randomly assorted moments (ahh, but they're not!) in American history, I also read and blogged extensively about disgraced Vice-President Spiro Agnew this year.
I wrote a lot about music and film in 2013. The death of Lou Reed, one of my all time favorite singer-songwriters, inspired in me a vast blast of sudden blogging, which was exhausting. As I mentioned in a comment to one of the above posts, I sure hope Bob Dylan has a good doctor, because I don't want to blog that much again anytime soon. I also continued my series of articles about musical memoirs, because it pleases me to do so, and I hope it pleases some of you too. The next installment in the "Great Lost Rock Memoir" series drops in January.
I got pretty excited about Baz Luhrmann's film version of The Great Gatsby in 2013 -- not so much because Baz treated F. Scott Fitzgerald well (he didn't) but simply because he tackled the classic with such audacity and fresh verve. That's what I like to see in a film adaptation -- let the source material be damned. I also approved of another literary film, the Beat Generation-inspired Kill Your Darlings, and I hope I'll get to write about the new Kerouac adaptation Big Sur soon, if the movie can manage to show up anywhere in my vicinity of possible viewing.
Now, let's talk about the most significant book of 2013. This book wasn't published in 2013, but the second installment of the popular movie series came out this year, and it was a knockout. I'm talking, of course, about the Hunger Games trilogy by Suzanne Collins (which is why I say it's not a book -- it's three books -- hah!).
I read all three Hunger Games books because my kids told me too; in this case, as in so many others, my kids were right on target. These are gritty, painful stories about an oppressed society about to burst into revolution. The grim scenes of downtrodden enslaved communities are matched by subversive satire about wealth and excess whenever the protagonists leave their homes to visit the Capitol, a bright city in which everybody dresses like Lady Gaga. The knowing send-up of reality television and high-stakes entertainment is wonderfully clever. The love triangle between Katniss Everdeen and her two suitors Gale Hawthorne and Peeta Mellark is brilliantly drawn and recalls the fine agony Scarlett O'Hara faced when trying to weigh the relative merits of Ashley Wilkes and Rhett Butler in Gone With The Wind.
I'm picking the Hunger Games trilogy as the most significant book of 2013 not because of what Hunger Games is, but because of what the world in 2013 is. I sense hope in the air. I hear the song of the mockingjay, distant but approaching.
Hunger Games is about a revolution that badly needs to happen, that finally begins to happen. Here in the real world, it seems that Edward Snowden's well-placed revelations about the privacy invasions required to maintain a hyper-military state have made a wide impact. My favorite President Barack Obama had a rough year -- the launch of Obamacare was a mess, and I'm sorry to see that many voters who dislike Obama are taking the opportunity to blame our government's privacy invasions personally on him (I think this misses the point) -- but it's good news that as of December 2013 the vitally important healthcare legislation known as Obamacare has managed to stand. In Kiev, Ukraine, the citizens are protesting in the streets. All over the planet, there is a growing awareness of ecological concerns. Maybe the happiest surprise of all in 2013 was the arrival of Pope Francis, the first Pope from South America, who stunned the world by declaring some truths that many of us already knew, but never expected the leader of the Catholic Church to say: that gay people may seek God, that a politicized obsession with the legality of abortion has harmed the Catholic Church's greater message, that vast income inequality is a growing problem that must be addressed, and that trickle-down economics has not proven itself to be a humane policy.
In the first book of Hunger Games, Katniss Everdeen discovers the extent of her own strength and skill. In Catching Fire, the second book and second movie, Katniss's discovery is not about her own strength and skill, but about the strength and skill of the community that supports her. Perhaps this is why the second book/movie is even more thrilling than the first.
I'm not in the habit of embracing the products of pop culture, or of seeing violent flashy movies in theaters packed with teenagers. But there is great value in opening one's mind, and this book/movie franchise really is that good. But anyway, that's not why I'm picking it as my favorite for 2013. I'm picking it because it has inspiration to offer. It's a story about hope for the future. And I think 2013 was a mockingjay year.
2 Responses to "2013 Wrap-Up: A Mockingjay Year"
Strangely apropos that I stumble upon this article this morning as I last night watched the second installment of this series, "Catching Fire". What I had previously perceived as a "teenage" novel/film turned my head considerably. Perhaps this is largely because of the excellent casting choices of the films' production. Donald Sutherland at his slimy evil best, the perfect Beat presence of Woody Harrelson, the quiet under-scored performance of Mr. Hoffman or simply the intelligence of the script/novel as a whole. All in all it affected me more than I was prepared for. Hurrah! Of course one can not overlook the overwhelming screen presence of Jennifer Lawrence. All in all, a great lesson to this somewhat jaded soul to not preconceive a judgement before understanding. Thank you Levi for some confirmation of my own surprised appreciation.
I thought The Great Gatsby movie was excellent - much better than the On the Road movie, which was only so-so.
re The Hunger Games - I like how you put it - "...not because of what Hunger Games is, but because of what the world in 2013 is."


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This entry was posted in Colombia News, Colombian blogosphere, Colombian people, International News, Journalism & Media, Mainstream media. Bookmark the permalink.
It’s not a pride for me to share a room with other commentators calling Uribe “mafioso”, even if they have a journalist “title”. By the way, I am not in the right wing as it must be understood. Left in Colombia behaves as a right in many cases and I don’t agree with most rightist ideas beyond recovering order and respect to the law.
Ohhh, Diegoth, you love Uribe like a idiot. Do you say Uribe is not mafioso, really?. Uribe’s father was a big mafioso, Pablo Escobar friend. Uribe family was only one of a lot that give some money to Escobar and few days after Escobar return them a lot of money. Friendship between Uribe family and Escobar get strong when Alvaro Uribe was Director of colombian Civil Aeronautic department and colombian sky doors was open to Escobar´s airplanes that fly full of cocaine to US.
If you say that Uribe is not mafioso you are a liar like Uribe, and your words only show a cinic and criminal morality that are going to destroy Colombia.
Uribe, mafioso and paramilitary criminal, a sick and stupid president for stupid people.
New people in the forum: This gentleman Pirata Subterráneo, is not any more than castrista cigar and junkie.
Pirata: your website was against Colombian Army’s fight to FARC, so I won’t discuss with real allies of criminals.
Do you have proofs of what you say about Uribe? You like to accuse with no proofs, but I saw your blog criticizing Uribe for fighting the FARC.
I don’t argue with such people.
Colombians debating in broken English about their country, for an audience of North Americans and Europeans…it’s like the Roman Circus! Instead of providing cheap entertainment to English speakers whose interest in Colombia will dissipate as soon as the commercial break ends and we return to a new episode of Desperate Housewives (or maybe Ugly Betty– rica ironia esa), maybe it’s time to create a reputable blogspace in Spanish for these debates.

industry_corpus2: Media & Journalism


text:
Europe continues to be the source of the best-appreciated products in terms of quality and innovation, and of trends that exert a global influence. D.B. Group supports the sharing of this value.
D.B. Group’s headquarters are in Italy but our integrated logistics extend throughout Europe. We are proud of our presence in prime locations around continental Europe, with offices in Romania, France, Spain, Germany and Russia.
Italian products are greatly valued worldwide for their quality, attention to detail and innovative design, the result of inimitable craft skills, culture and expertize. We have always supported the exporting of this excellence to the rest of the world.
Romania has played a key role over the last decade as an area for delocalization and supply for Italian companies. By now, Romania has developed into a strategic platform for business between markets of the East and West.
The French economy is currently improving in all the main parameters: GDP, internal demand and private investments are all on the rise, thus providing a positive climate for the business world involved in transalpine exchanges.
A country widely admired for its liberalization process and oppennes to international markets - particularly during the economic boom at the beginning of this century – today Spain is regaining confidence and capacity to grow. It is undoubtedly poised to become one of the main players on the European scene in the short term.
Despite the unstable international situation, Germany’s economy continues to grow steadily, as was borne out by the figures for 2015, which showed 1.7% growth and a budget surplus of 0.5% of GDP, the highest for the last four years.
Russian consumers are confirmed as among the world’s top spenders for the luxury market with forecasts of a strong increase by 2020, particularly for medium-to-high priceband products in the lifestyle and technology markets. It is thus a key target for the high-end markets - fashion in particular - to be discovered with the support of D.B. Group.

industry_corpus2: Manufacturing


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Pantone 448c is often described as the ugliest colour in the world. But there are many legitimate uses for colours that cause repulsion in a consumer and this one is increasingly effective.
The world’s ugliest color has been described as “death,” “dirty” and “tar,” but this odious hue is serving an important purpose: discouraging smoking. Pantone 448 C, a “drab, dark brown” also called “opaque couché,” was specifically selected after three months and multiple studies by research agency GfK. The agency was hired by the Australian government to find a color that was so repugnant that if it was on tobacco products, it would dissuade people from smoking.

industry_corpus2: Others


text:
Dubai: International visitors are one of the biggest sources of consumer spending in the UAE, and the amount of money they spend at hotels, restaurants and other commercial establishments during their stay are growing every year, the latest data suggest.
Data collated by Mashreq showed that about a quarter (25 per cent) of expenditures in the UAE is made by tourists from all over the world.
Their total annual spend went up by six per cent in 2018 compared to a year earlier.
The tourism market in the UAE has grown recently due to an easing of certain visa restrictions, especially among Chinese and Russian travellers.
Over the last 12 months, nearly 90 million people passed through the terminals of Dubai International, up by more than one per cent from the previous year.
While the biggest source of traveler traffic last year was India, visitors from Saudi Arabia have topped the table in terms of spending.
According to Mashreq’s data, credit card spending by travellers from the Gulf state accounted for 20 per cent of overall international spending, followed by China, United States, United Kingdom, Kuwait, Russia and India.
Chinese travellers, however, showed a much bigger appetite for credit card use, with their spending rising by 50 per cent in 2018 compared to the same period in 2017.
“The impact of the strategic partnership between the UAE and China, via initiatives like Hala China, saw Chinese spending grow by over 50 per cent,” said Mashreq in a statement.
More than 1.5 million people from Saudi Arabia visited Dubai in 2017, according to figures from the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism). The kingdom remained the highest driver of visitor traffic from within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.

industry_corpus2: Travel & Geography


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Valiant - Trusted with classics by Logan, Bailey, Lane, Couldrey, Landis, Sparkman and Stephens, Herreshoff, Palin, Lidgard, Townson, Young and other designers.
1949 William Garden designed Ketch; Honduras Mahogany carvel planked over Mahogany frames. Oregon deck beams.


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I need to create a scatter plot. On X-Axis I will have values such as PE Ratio (say ranges from 5 to 20, for total of 20 different names (Bank A, Bank B, etc).
I am often required to create some very specific charts for clients that are far outside of the capability of regular Excel charting functionality.
Now let's try creating a similar graph in Excel. Creating a scatterplot in Excel is very easy. It is even not too hard to add size (by changing chart type from X Y (scatter) to Bubble chart).

industry_corpus2: Computing & Telecommunications


text: Here at Marvin you can easily, quickly and safely order delicious food for delivery or collection from local takeaways in Salthill, Co. Galway. Just take your pick of the restaurants on the list and click on to their menu. There you can order just what you fancy. In Salthill, Co. Galway you can amongst other things choose from chinese, vegetarian or asian fusion.

industry_corpus2: Hospitality & Catering


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Picture this: frantic waiters race a variety drink orders across the room while a group of assorted QUT alumni introduce themselves, and one of my study tour colleagues Angus (“Aussie Angus”) bellows a G’day greeting to them at the top of his voice. If you’ve ever wondered what happens when you mix a bunch of excited Australian students with a group of eager mentors whose brains they can pick, the answer is best summarised with one word – noise.
James, William, Anna and Fiona enjoying dinner with the team.
It was yet another scorching hot evening in Kowloon as we made our way to a local Italian restaurant at the glamorous Festival Walk shopping precinct. Our event organiser James Ho warmly introduced us to the rest of our dinner guests – seated at my table were the lovely Elsie Wong and Jon Lam, while table 2 dined with James, William Lau, Fiona Tsang and Anna Lee.
Our table was definitely the better behaved of the two.
Over the course of the next couple of hours the Hong Kong locals enthralled us with their experience and insights about living and working in Hong Kong. A point of particular note was how common it was to work up to 18 hours a day! William – who runs his own business – actually seemed to fondly look back on a time where he “only” had to be at work from 10am in the morning, to 2am the next morning. I still haven’t been able to decide if that’s impressive or horrifying. Horrifyingly impressive perhaps?
It takes a lot to make these two seem reserved.
In their own words, the locals make up for this by adhering to the old adage “work hard, play harder”, and they were more than happy to provide us with a variety of tips for enjoying a social life in Hong Kong. Life here really does seem to run at 100 miles an hour, and the people throw themselves into every endeavour with the kind of effort and enthusiasm that puts even the most energetic of us to shame.
After enviously drooling (sometimes literally) at all that Hong Kong has to offer over the past weeks, it was nice to learn that all of the alumni looked back fondly on their time in Brisbane, with some even expressing a desire to return at some point in the future. But for now, it’s life in the fast lane, pedal to the metal, high octane living for our Hong Kong friends.
The only thing that moves faster than this city is its people.
A large part of me is terrified by it, but an even larger part is fervently eager to join them.
If you’re a former QUT student, be sure to look out for your local alumni chapter! The QUT Alumni – Hong Kong Chapter can be found on Facebook.

industry_corpus2: Subject Education


text:
Mainstays still made their plays for the character rankings, but the return of Mobile Suit Gundam Iron Blooded Orphans certainly had an effect on the list.
This week, the December issue of anime magazine Newtype was out. Kizumonogatari, Sword Art Online, Your Name. and Fate/stay night still made their plays for the character rankings, but the return of Mobile Suit Gundam Iron Blooded Orphans certainly had an effect on the list.


text:
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The MX² 95 combines traditional Munters strengths like efficiency and robustness with modern state of the art technology like modulating RH control and communication.
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The MX² 95 can be supplied with 3 different reactivation alternatives - electrical, steam and gas. A service indicator activates when a preventative service is due, this is a standard feature. To make installation easier the process fan inlet has been designed to allow for different outlet positions.


text:
The British Government is calling on the United States to do more to protect the world's environment, on the eve of a crucial climate summit in Japan.
Britain's Environment Minister, Michael Meacher, said he appreciated that the American authorities faced a difficult battle against the country's industrial lobby but believed they could do more.
Key talks on climate change open in Kyoto on Monday when countries will try to agree legally-binding targets on so-called greenhouse gas emissions.
Britain wants carbon dioxide from transport and industry cut by 20% by 2010 because many scientists believe the gas is contributing to a global warming.
The US, which is wedded to the car economy, proposes only to peg its carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels by 2008-12.
Mr Meacher told BBC1's Panorama programme, to be broadcast on Monday night in the UK: "We are, in effect, leading the world. We are taking the toughest line over carbon dioxide not because we want to be arrogant or to make a political point, simply because we feel it is necessary.
"They [the United States] certainly ought to be making, in our view, a bigger effort.
"But I do think you have to take into account that in America, as opposed to Europe, there is an extremely hostile political and industrial climate."
Mr Meacher says President Clinton has probably gone as far as he can for the moment.
"I believe that in future years, and indeed I hope at Kyoto, he is going to be pressed to go further, and indeed the whole world is going to have to go further," he said.

industry_corpus2: Power & Energy


text:
B1 enters the batters box on the right side while the pitcher is in position ready to pitch. B1 disconcerts the pitcher by moving to the left -hand batter’s box.
Where in HS rule book is this addressed?
Do you allow the pitcher to reset and warn the head coach the next infraction will result in the batter be out?
In NFHS there is no warning ... batter is out.
Also in USA. No judgment, just the move.
It may be prudent to allow the batter to become set in the batter's box first. That might include holding a hand up to signal the pitcher not to pitch. Once the batter is set, give a beckoning motion to the pitcher.
I've seen some pitchers who get the ball back from the catcher while standing on the pitcher's plate and they're ready to go. That might help from a pace of play perspective, but the batter has the right to get ready.
And the pitcher is still required to simulate taking a signal from the catcher. This is so there are no quick pitches.
Also, I assumed that "disconcerting" in the OP meant across the plate in front of the catcher with no time out and that the batter was apparently set.
Please clarify regarding the comments above.
B1 enters the batters box on the right side while the pitcher is in position ready to pitch.
This is also a potential out in NCAA - 11.20.1 -- but it's a delayed dead ball.
I assume this means we let the pitcher throw one pitch, then give the defense the option of the batter is out; or the result of the play.
I know what some people on the board think about stupid NCAA rules, and I tend to disagree, but I'll be damned if this isn't a stupid NCAA rule IMO.
The violation occurred prior to the pitch. Why continue play after a violation that had nothing to do with any further play?
NCAA recently changed all batter interference situations from an immediate dead ball to a delayed dead ball, so that it allows the defense to make a play more to its advantage. Suppose the catcher, despite the BI, is able to throw out a runner going from second to third. The defense would likely want the result of that play.
Maybe, maybe not. What if the batter does this as the pitcher already brings her hands together, and the pitcher is able to deliver the pitch?
My thought is that all INT should be an immediate dead ball. This isn't NBA basketball, we don't need continuation.
This sort of slippery slope leads to, "What if the batter punches the fielder in the face before she can catch the ball, and two runs score, but the defense retrieves the ball and gets the third out of the inning on a play at the plate to end the game?"
No, just NO. Say no to TWP situations. Make INT a dead ball again.
Also, the pitch doesn't start until the hands come apart.
Last edited by teebob21; Tue Feb 19, 2019 at 09:34pm.
Agree. A long time ago, in a place unknown, a coach thought he got robbed of a double play. The coaches make the rules and this is the result.
This is nothing new...in that other sport played with a smaller white ball. The delayed dead ball allows the defense to make a play on a runner and take the option of the play if it's to their benefit.
It's no different than umpire interference on a catcher's throw. Let it play out, and see if the defense is still able to retire the runner. If they do, why take that out away from them?
Yeah, I do think making this particular batter interference violation a delayed dead ball is rather strange, since the infraction would normally happen well before the pitch is delivered. Why wait?

industry_corpus2: Sports


text:
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industry_corpus2: Petrochemicals


text:
President Trump is returning to the United Kingdom. So is the big fat orange diaper-wearing baby blimp.
Guest post: How will climate change’s warming pattern look in the future?


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industry_corpus2: Transportation


text: The Mazza family's involvement with the jewelry industry dates back almost two centuries in a small town just south of Naples called Torre de Greco. Starting in the 1840's the Mazza family worked with coral and conch shells for cameos, which they harvested and hand carved in Italy. The Mazza Company continues to create their unique collections using hand carved gemstones and other special gems in the family tradition. The Mazza Company, the formerly unknown supplier of gemstones for many famous jewelry houses has now emerged as a leading creator of 14kt and 18kt fine fashion jewelry.


text:
More than 2,000 Texas AFT members and allies from across Texas rallied on the front steps of the Texas Capitol Monday and brought their strong grass-roots presence to bear in scores of visits with individual legislators.
–support for measures that bolster respect and dignity for education employees to attract and keep the dedicated employees our students deserve.
Participants in the Texas AFT Lobby Day also made it clear to the purveyors of this retrograde agenda that we see right through their thinly veiled attempt to quell resistance by silencing the voices of Texas school employees. We refer to SB 13 by Sen. Joan Huffman (R-Houston) and its companion HB 510 by Rep. Sarah Davis (R-Houston), which would take away employees’ ability to direct voluntary dues payments to the organizations like Texas AFT that serve to amplify their voice and meet their representational needs. SB 13 is awaiting further action in the Texas Senate after winning committee approval on a contested vote. HB 510 is still in committee in the House. You can send a letter right now in opposition to the attack on employees’ right to voluntary payroll dues deduction. Use your voice or lose it!


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This paper shows that with (partial) irreversibility higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These “cautionary effects” of uncertainty are large—going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much weaker in periods of high uncertainty, such as after the 1973 oil crisis and September 11, 2001. Copyright 2007, Wiley-Blackwell.
Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
Van Reenen, John & Bloom, Nick & Bond, Steve, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Joanne M. Doyle & Toni M. Whited, 2001. "Fixed Costs Of Adjustment, Coordination, And Industry Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 628-637, November.
Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
Caballero, R.J., 1994. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: Generalized (S,s) Approach," Working papers 94-32, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1996. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 12, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1994. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," NBER Working Papers 4887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," NBER Working Papers 4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Vlieghe, Gertjan & Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed, 2003. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 212, Royal Economic Society.
Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," IFS Working Papers W04/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Bank of England working papers 222, Bank of England.
Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
Marcelo Veracierto, 1997. "Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Marcelo Veracierto, 1998. "Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Øivind Anti Nilsen & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2003. "Zeros and Lumps in Investment: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibilities and Nonconvexities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1021-1037, November.
Oivind Anti Nilsen & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1996. "Zeroes and Lumps in Investment: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibilities and Non-Convexities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 337., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2000.
Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
Eberly, Janice C. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 1997. "Multi-factor Dynamic Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 345-387, August.
Nicolas Bloom, 2000. "The dynamic effects of real options and irreversibility on investment and labour demand," IFS Working Papers W00/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Bloom, Nicholas & Bond, Stephen Roy & Van Reenen, John, 2003. "Uncertainty and Company Investment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for UK Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:2:p:391-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

industry_corpus2: Finance & Economics


text:
It seems that everywhere you look someone is talking about Millennials – they do things differently, they’re more socially informed, and they’re more digitally connected. Executives across all industries are trying to mold their strategies to meet the demands of this significant generation. The concept of retail is being redesigned, all messaging touchpoints are being modernized, and technology is being leveraged across the entire journey.
Indeed, Millennials are an influential generation with a different set of ideas as to how the world should work. But if society is growing at such a pace, what can we expect from their children, coined “Generation Alpha” by sociologist Mark McCrindle? Generation Alpha – babies born in 2010 and onwards – will be the most formally educated generation ever, will be the most technologically savvy, and globally the wealthiest in human history.
Approximately 2.5 million of these Gen Alphas are being born each week, and the first Alphas are already entering school. So why are businesses not more focused on these emerging influencers and the preceding Generation Z, who are already in school? The following three observations will provide insight into how to address the needs of these emerging generations, and who is already doing a good job of it.
Generation Z and Alpha are getting a more heavy-handed education on protecting their identities online than Millennials and Generation X ever had. While Alphas are still too young to engage in social media, Millennials and Zeds are leaving platforms like Facebook, seeking out more ambiguous or private platforms like Instagram and Whisper. With cyber-bullying and identity theft driving this education in schools and from parents, upcoming Zeds and Alphas will need to know that banks are serious about protecting their identities.
That being said, as they grow up these youngsters will have had an almost constantly customized experience, and will expect this kind of personalization. If banks can ensure their customers’ security, they can increase the frequency and quantity of consumer information gathered and create exponentially more customized experiences based on that information. Facebook, having recognized this trend many years ago, is doing a particularly good job at this: they collect profile data, web browsing behavior, search queries, and other metrics in order to create a main feed that seems custom-tailored to each user. Ads are more targeted and specific, news stories are more relevant, and user-generated content is filtered and ordered in a way that highlights posts from users you are most communicative with or interested in (based on your online behaviors). Some might argue Facebook is almost TOO good at this, and media-savvy Zeds and Alphas might find a more subtle approach more appealing. But regardless, a personal experience will be the norm, and to effectively target Generation Alpha, having a robust CRM strategy that leverages behavioral and demographic information will be of utmost importance.
We are already seeing a dramatic shift in real-world social behavior brought on by technology – we prefer to text message or email instead of having phone or face-to-face conversations; we cross the street with our heads down and our attention on our phones instead of looking where we are going, and legislators are considering laws about “distracted walking.” We are entranced by the unlimited social potential that our smart devices offer us anytime, anywhere – imagine what future generations will be like! Generation Z and A will get their first hand-held devices long before their 10th birthdays – as much as this might make Grandma cringe, it’s the new reality. Many children now hand in their homework through online classroom portals like Edmodo and are using smart boards and iPads in class. Vast numbers of them will have grown up without cable TV or a landline. As a result, companies must recognize the corresponding shift in social behavior and adapt their own consumer-interfacing communications strategies to survive.
The current preference to resolve banking issues in the branch with an actual person will begin to shift toward virtual tellers that can be accessed remotely, or even text-based conversations like telecom Rogers Communications now offers. One thing is for certain: Generation Z and A will be more comfortable banking with a hand-held device than any previous generation, and less interested than their predecessors in banking in-person. In order to connect with consumers and grow loyalty, banks will need to go beyond their current models and offer seamless, integrated, intuitive online banking platforms, and consider reward programs and innovative financial advisory services.
Millennials are noted as being an extraordinarily entrepreneurial generation, perhaps driven by the dwindling supply of “secure” jobs, or perhaps because “do what you love” could be their mantra. Regardless, the Generation X and Millennial parents of Zeds and Alphas will be less financially secure than their boomer parents. Many of them will not have saved sufficiently for retirement, many will not become home-owners, and will report a lower quality of life than their parents enjoyed. Growing up with financial uncertainty will cause Zeds and Alphas to be cautious, and to seek out financial information.
The good news is that banks are in a position to help Generation Z and A now, and it’s a win-win: financial wisdom will help Gen Z and A live better lives, and they will become a more stable bank consumer demographic for the future. Many banks are already on board. PNC Bank partnered with Sesame Street to create PNC Grow Up Great! with fun activities like Elmo’s For Me, for You, for Later. And Bank of Montreal’s Talk with Our Kids About Money initiative with the Canadian Foundation for Economic Education is an excellent resource for parents and their children. Toronto Dominion has the Family Allowance Test app, which on its own is useful but could be leveraged further through competitions for youth that promote financial health as a fun, educational game. Award-winning app Renegade Buggies does just that: kids have to race through a wild shopping experience, but only win if they get the best deal.
As Generation Alpha and their Zed predecessors grow up, this gamified way of learning will need to grow up with them. As social research firm McCrindle observes, “A shift in educational engagement is also occurring for Gen Alpha, changing from structural and auditory to engaging, visual, multimodal and hands-on methods of educating this emerging generation.” This shift has incredible implications not just for educating Generation Z and Alpha as children, but for adulthood financial steps, such as a first loan or mortgage. Educating them in the method described above will be more successful than using traditional methods. Indeed, Generation Alphas will learn and then absorb information in a much more specific way and it is imperative that businesses identify this and begin to plan their strategies accordingly.
Ultimately, while the media seems content to talk about the importance of Millennials, we expect the focus to shift toward Generation Z and A, since they may prove to be even more influential than their parents. They are the most diverse generation ever to have been born, and technology is not only intrinsic to them, but it has drastically changed the way people are learning. It is incredibly vital, then, for businesses to begin to discuss these generations when they sit down to plan their long-term strategies, and to begin reaching out to them now to ensure a financially healthy future for everyone.


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Idiosyncratic Whisk: Housing: Part 212 - Consumption from home equity.
A broadly held concern about rising home prices is that rising prices fuel unsustainable consumption spending when households tap home equity to spend more. Here is a new article on the subject in Australia (HT: John Wake). The article mentions research that claims 24% of each dollar in capital gains are taken by owners in new debt. This is similar to an estimate by Mian and Sufi.
I think, on this topic, it is important to distinguish between real (making stuff) and nominal (exchanging money for stuff) economic activity. This is purely a nominal issue. So, I think instead of framing this as an issue of households overconsuming in an unsustainable way, it is more accurate to say that, of the stuff we were making, real estate beneficiaries were claiming more of it, at the expense of people who were producing stuff. That should be inflationary. And, if it is not, then it means that the central bank is counteracting the phenomenon with tight money.
Whatever the inflation effect, real estate owners were consuming, in the real sense, at the expense of producers.
The research referenced in the article also mentions that real estate gains draw some owners out of the labor force because of their newfound wealth. This makes sense. But, again, thinking about this in terms of real economic claims on production, we might expect a similar rise in labor force participation among producers whose incomes are now vying for a smaller portion of production.
In fact, during the housing "bubble", labor force participation was quite strong. I have done a lot of work on this blog in the past showing how demographics are responsible for much of the drop in labor force participation, recently. Here, just as a quick and dirty way to try to control for that, I am using prime age male labor force participation. There is a long term downtrend, but after we account for that, we can see that labor force participation was strong.
This makes sense to me, because I don't think credit supply or irrational speculation have much to do with the housing "bubble". I think it mostly had to do with high skilled working people buying access into the Closed Access labor markets where limited housing serves as a gatekeeper. So, there while there was certainly some amount of typical labor force reductions because of capital gains, many of the households utilizing gains from those homes for consumption were in those homes specifically to work.
In any case, I don't see much cause for even bringing the central bank into this. From the point of view of consumers who don't have access to these capital gains, this seems like a real shock. There is less production for them to claim. That is going to be the case regardless of the inflation rate. Monetary policy can't solve the problem of unsustainable consumption, even if that is what is happening.
But, households can't unsustainably consume, domestically. They can only change their relative claims on existing production. Here, the trade deficit seems to suggest unsustainability. In effect, foreign capital was flooding into our capital markets, helping to push up home prices, so that, in effect, we were borrowing from foreigners in order to buy production from foreigners, and this is why it was unsustainable.
And, this is why a clear understanding of what has been happening in foreign trade and investment is key. It is true that the trade deficit ballooned during the housing "bubble" as foreign investment flooded into the US. But, at the same time, US net income on foreign investment was also strong and positive. If we were hawking our futures for unsustainable consumption, then our net foreign income should have dropped as foreign savers claimed their profits from our borrowing. Considering the significant spike in net imports, this should be a shocking piece of evidence.
The explanation for this is that the causation goes the other way. Closed Access exclusion supports excessive wages and profits in the Closed Access cities. Many of those profits are earned overseas. Those Closed Access incomes were the cause of high home prices, the cause of rising foreign income, and the cause of foreign capital inflows. And, they funded those imports. Even with the continued high trade deficit, net foreign income for US savers is high.
Yet, again, whether this consumption was sustainable or not, what does the central bank have to do with it? That will be the case regardless of the rate of inflation. The only way for monetary policy to cut into this consumption is to create a real shock large enough to induce retrenchment. This is basically what we did.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year growth in personal consumption expenditures (red). I have also included the growth in mortgages outstanding, then I deducted residential investment in single family structures to estimate the amount of new mortgages that were coming out of capital gains on existing housing units (blue). I also include a measure of one quarter of the increase in the value of existing real estate, to estimate the amount of capital gains that are claimed by owners for consumption.
Mian & Sufi do estimate that 2.8% of GDP was funded by home equity borrowing every year from 2002 to 2006. That's enough to cover the growth in personal consumption expenditures shown above.
Again, short of causing a real shock to incomes, I'm not sure what monetary policy could do about this. A rise or drop in inflation would have presumably increased or decreased nominal spending from both the windfall spenders and producers.
As we can see in the graph, real estate values were the first thing to stop expanding. We might expect some stickiness in the willingness of households to continue tapping home equity for consumption. So, mortgage expansion continued until early 2008. And, PCE growth continued to expand along with mortgage growth. So, for most of 2006 and 2007, marginal new consumption was still being claimed by homeowners, but now it was coming at the expense of home equity.
But, as I have documented, at this point, much of this equity harvesting wasn't from continuing homeowners. There was a spike of selling out of homeownership. The homeownership rate was declining, even though the natural inflow of first time buyers tends to be fairly stable. This meant that housing starts were collapsing and the typical owner of the housing stock was becoming more leveraged, just because long time owners were being replaced by new owners. We can see this where total growth in gross mortgages outstanding was dropping much faster than mortgages outstanding net of new investment.
Here is a similar graph, but here, I have added annualized residential investment and year-over-year growth in compensation and after tax domestic corporate profit. Here, notice that growth in compensation also nearly adds up to the growth in PCE. So, between the growth in mortgages and the growth in compensation, consumption is more than accounted for.
This is because much of that mortgage growth and consumption growth was funding savings. The way it was funding savings was that first time homebuyers were buying homes from long term homeowners who were exiting homeownership. This created significant new mortgage debt. But, the former home equity of those former home owners wasn't being consumed. It was being saved. Much of it was funding CDOs. This didn't show up as savings, because we don't tend to count capital gains as savings. But, there was a lot of savings flowing out of home equity and into fixed income securities.
Notice that compensation and PCE dropped together in 2008 about when mortgage growth dropped. Mortgage growth dropped after the private securitization market collapsed in summer 2007. At that point, a financial crisis had begun to build, and the Fed was making emergency loans to troubled financial firms. From summer 2007 until they were running out of treasuries to sell in September 2008, they were "sterilizing" those loans. In other words, they were trying to save banks without actually injecting cash into the economy.
But, if consumption was being facilitated by real estate gains and expanding mortgages, then really, from 2004 to 2007, the Fed had already been sort of sterilizing the money supply, sucking out currency to make up for the extra consumption that was funded by real estate gains. When the private securitization market collapsed, if estimates of homeowner debt utilization are accurate, then when the Fed was sterilizing their emergency loans in order to avoid providing money to the economy, they should have been shoveling massive amounts of cash into the economy to make up for the drop in nominal spending.
It isn't the Fed's job to impose a negative shock to make up for past consumption. It's the Fed's job to provide stability. In fact, I submit that the Fed should have been providing more accommodation back in 2006 when home equity started to dive. This sharp increase in homeowner leverage was already a sign of dislocation. We can see in the graph above that, while compensation didn't suffer much from that dislocation, domestic corporate profits did. And, we can see the drop in domestic corporate profits was largely due to the collapse in residential investment.
The country thought the trade deficit was unsustainable, residential investment was unsustainable, and home prices were unsustainable, all funded by foreign capital. We were wrong on all counts.
So what kept us afloat between 2006-2008? Those foreign profits. Here is a chart of US corporate foreign profits as a percentage of GDP.
* This transfer of consumption is accounted for, to a certain extent by the high incomes of Closed Access producers. The high incomes of Closed Access workers and firms mean that production from Closed Access industries is more expensive - there is less consumer surplus from those industries. So, some of the reduced real consumption is from producers in the rest of the country, who pay more for Closed Access output. Some of the reduced real consumption is from producers in the Closed Access cities who pay more for housing, leaving less of their incomes for other consumption.
I think this paper agrees with you in part, though it is a bit dated.
I sometimes wonder if it is "easier to make money" overseas.
The US economy is very competitive, and foreign firms do not make much profit here, but US firms overseas do make money, especially when they introduce first-world operations to emerging nations, or US efficiency to Europe.
Maybe profits are reported offshore to avoid US taxes.
Also, there was a round of foreign buying of US assets in the 1980s through the early 2000s that did not pan out. Japanese were big buyers of West Coast real estate in the 1980s and 1990s that mostly crapped out. Somebody in Europe bought Chrysler and lost $10 bil.
Still not sure how this plays into your real estate closed-cities explanation.
Evidently, the US has had very profitable overseas operations going since well before 2007 (date of paper).
Also, the NY Fed found many nations---not just the U.S.---running large trade deficits had the house-price booms. The same explanation applies to all such nations?
Basically, the money that bought imported goods and services came back as real estate investments, whether the US, Australia or Spain. This makes sense to me.
To further confuse matters, I have always been a bit suspicious of the international trade stats. Huge amounts of cash, digital and paper, sloshing around in offshore, in Cayman Island-land.
Maybe $30 trillion in the offshore financial netherworld, and growing.
$1.5 trillion in paper US cash is in circulation, or $4,700 for every resident of the country, including babies and old ladies.
Really? If this paper cash turns over even three times a year, it is large relative to reported size of US economy.
Non-PC question: If you had to just tax only imports or on;y labor, which would you tax?
PS Your last chart---why is that only foreign profits? Am I missing something?
Well, great post. Maybe this one is over my pay grade.
I think the international correlation bolsters my point. Yes, the same thing is happening everywhere. I like this line of thinking. I think I might incorporate this approach in the book. Basically just start with a single fact, which is well established - closed access home values are due to persistent increases in local incomes and rents that are made possible by limited supply. Just follow the logic from there. You get lower interest rates, higher labor participation, trade deficits, mortgage growth, etc. It matches the data better than the demand side explanation or the foreign saver explanation.
I don't understand your last question. On the question of taxes, simply considering the implications of this issue and nothing else, I might favor the import tax. The reason is that my understanding from seeing the discussion about the proposed border tax is that the import tax would actually end up taxing the excess foreign profits of the Closed Access firms. That's probably bad for US incomes in the short term, but I'd prefer not to have incomes based on political exclusion.
"[R]eal estate owners were consuming, in the real sense, at the expense of producers." How "at the expense of"? The real estate owner who finds that his house has appreciated offers a new saving opportunity to someone else: lend me some money, against my house as collateral, and I will pay you interest at an attractive rate. This other person (in practice there will usually be a bank or the like as intermediary) curtails consumption he otherwise would have engaged in and instead lends money at interest to the homeowner. The lender's hypothetical consumption is replaced by the homeowner's consumption, but the lender is gaining interest payments that (over-)compensate him for his foregone consumption. What happens might be said to be "at the expense of" the lender's *consumption*, but not at the expense of *the lender*.
What if the homeowner normally save $20,000 of his income, but since his home appreciates an extra $20,000, he consumes $20,000 instead? This would have an inflationary effect on consumption goods and would induce some marginal additional savings from other consumers.
What is it that is different about our scenarios that produces different outcomes?
There is a lot going on. I'm admittedly still working it out. Thanks for the input. I'll have to think on it.
The chart closest to the above sentence seems to be a start about domestic corporate profits, with some adjustments. Not sure I understand the drift.
Maybe there is a better way to get at it. What I tried to do is take total US corporate profits and subtract domestic profits, which would leave foreign profits.
Kevin, Losses on MBS. RMBS or CMBS. How does that show up in the trade stats? I'm thinking about US imports a widget, foreigner uses money to buy an MBS. That adds to our trade deficit (and current account deficit) at that time, and adds to our capital account surplus at that time. But then there is a loss on the MBS (mortgage defaults, foreclosure, etc., so a permanent loss, not just a price change during the holding period). Where does that loss get shown in our accounts? Thanks!
Even for firms, this would show up in Financials in a number of different ways, depending on how each security was accounted for. But I would expect that this lowered the value of foreign owned assets and lowered their income temporarily. I would guess that in the broad scheme of things, that doesn't amount to that much though. Probably more losses came through home equity declines on owned real estate.

industry_corpus2: Real Estate & Construction


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industry_corpus2: Health & Medicine